Deviance proneness and risk for alcohol dependence

描述(申请人提供)：本申请建议进行第二次五年的随访 对338名年龄在24-29岁之间的不同种族的年轻人(男性=148人)的样本进行了评估，以检查与预测几种酒精使用行为(包括病理参与)有关的易受偏差的模型。这一模型假设，父母有酗酒史导致病理性酒精参与的一个重要方面可能是缺乏社会化和问题行为。虽然偏执倾向模型最初被提出作为一个启发式模型来解释病理性酒精参与的发展，但该模型的许多元素也被认为是早期开始使用酒精和早期大量使用酒精的预测因子。这项拟议的研究建立在我们之前关于行为问题和反社会人格障碍的工作的基础上，并利用这个和其他样本进行了扩展。关于该模型的关键特征的信息最初是在受试者14-19岁时收集的，然后在19-24岁时再次收集。这项研究的独特之处在于，样本是从社区中确定的，具有种族多样性，在两次初步评估中使用了临床、心理社会、认知和电生理指标进行了很好的表征；还直接采访了父母。使用三个不同时间点的数据，本提案将：1)测试模型的准确性，以预测受试者在生活中的三个不同时间点：青春期中期、青春期后期和青年时期的不同饮酒行为；2)检查 年龄、种族、性别、同伴和家庭关系，以及应对能力，作为偏差倾向模型预测这三个不同时间点酒精使用和酒精问题的能力的潜在中介/调节因素；以及3)检查偏差倾向模型预测酒精使用行为随时间的准确性。使用结构方程模型方法，在基线和时间2收集的数据将被用来预测在时间3的饮酒行为，包括病理性饮酒。我们还将使用基线数据继续我们的分析，以预测在时间2的饮酒行为。我们还将检验Deviance倾向性模型在这三个不同时间点预测早期开始规律饮酒、经常重度饮酒和病理性饮酒的稳定性和有效性。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application proposes a second five-year follow-up evaluation of a sample of 338 ethnically diverse, young adults (males=148) between the ages of 24-29 years old to examine the 'Deviance Prone' model of vulnerability in relation to predicting several alcohol use behaviors, including pathological involvement. This model posits that a significant aspect of the susceptibility for developing pathological alcohol involvement due to a parental history of alcoholism may result from deficient socialization and problem behavior. Although the Deviance Prone model was originally proposed as a heuristic model to explain the development of pathological alcohol involvement, many elements of the model have also been implicated as predictors of early onset of alcohol use and early heavy use of alcohol. The proposed study builds upon and extends our previous work on conduct problems and antisocial personality disorder with this and other samples. Information on key features of the model were initially collected when subjects were 14-19 years old and again at 19-24 years old. The study is unique in that the sample was ascertained from the community, is ethnically diverse, and has been well characterized using clinical, psychosocial, cognitive, and electrophysiological measures during the two initial assessments; parents were also directly interviewed. Using data from the three different time points, the present proposal will: 1) test the accuracy of the model for predicting different drinking behaviors at three different points in the subjects' lives: in mid-adolescence, in late adolescence, and in young adulthood; 2) examine the influence of age, ethnicity, gender, peer, and family relations, and coping ability as potential mediators/moderators of the Deviance Prone model's ability to predict alcohol use and alcohol problems at these three different time points; and 3) examine the accuracy of the Deviance Prone model for predicting alcohol use behaviors over time. Using structural equation modeling methods, the data collected at baseline and at Time 2 will be used to predict drinking behaviors, including pathological alcohol use, at Time 3. We will also continue our analyses using the baseline data to predict alcohol use behaviors at Time 2. The stability and efficiency of the Deviance Prone model for predicting early initiation of regular alcohol use, heavy regular use, and pathological alcohol involvement at these three different points in time will also be examined.