Linking infectious disease dynamics to seasonal animal movements

描述(申请人提供)：越来越多的科学意识到，了解动物-病原体相互作用的种群生物学对于预测新出现的传染病对人类健康的风险是非常相关的。这项应用旨在开发一个昆虫-病原体模型系统，以研究动物的季节性迁徙以及宿主行为、繁殖和免疫的相关变化如何影响病原体的传播。许多动物物种进行季节性迁徙来跟踪气候或资源的变化；这些迁徙往往会带来巨大的能量成本，并伴随着重大的生理变化。迁徙动物还可能携带已知的人类健康风险的传染病--然而，人们对长距离迁徙对宿主-病原体相互作用的一般后果知之甚少。我将首先通过实地研究来解决这个问题，评估宿主繁殖密度和在给定栖息地停留的时间如何影响寄生虫在宿主环境中的传播和积累。为了研究感染成本如何影响宿主迁徙的成功，我将结合现场数据分析和稳定的同位素标记来推断沿迁徙路线和在其越冬地点捕获的宿主的出生来源。实验工作将测试迁徙前的生理变化如何影响宿主免疫和对感染的耐受性。最后，我将开发数学模型来探索宿主迁移距离和移动如何影响传染病动态。模型将考察动物迁徙策略如何影响宿主-寄生虫的动态，以及感染率如何影响宿主迁徙的相对成本和收益，并应用于广泛的动物病原体系统。宿主运动行为的时空信息对于预测作为人类传染病天然宿主的迁徙动物中传染病的传播是必要的。许多人类新出现的传染病是由迁徙动物携带的人畜共患病原体引起的，如禽流感病毒、西尼罗河病毒、莱姆病和类SARS冠状病毒：因此，病原体运动的知识对于评估时空发病模式至关重要。因此，了解动物迁徙影响寄生虫传播和宿主免疫的过程，对于预测迁徙的丧失将如何影响传染病动态至关重要。使用高度易处理的昆虫-病原体模型系统，我的工作将阐明可能对预测宿主种群和新出现的传染病之间复杂关系的未来变化可能非常重要的机制。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): There is growing scientific awareness that understanding the population biology of animal-pathogen interactions is very relevant for predicting human health risks from emerging infectious diseases. This application aims to develop a model insect-pathogen system to examine how seasonal animal migrations, and associated changes in host behavior, reproduction and immunity, affect pathogen spread. Many animal species undergo seasonal movements to track changes in climate or resources; these movements often have significant energetic costs and are accompanied by major physiological changes. Migratory animals can also harbor infectious diseases with known human health risks - yet little is known about the general consequences of long-distance migrations for host-pathogen interactions. I will approach this issue first empirically through field studies by evaluating how host breeding densities and duration of time spent in a given habitat affect parasite transmission and accumulation in the hosts' environment. To examine how the costs of infection impact host migratory success, I will incorporate field data analysis with stable isotope markers to infer the natal origins of hosts captured along migratory routes and at their wintering sites. Experimental work will test how physiological changes that precede migration influence host immunity and tolerance to infection. Lastly, I will develop mathematical models to explore how host migration distances and movements influence infectious disease dynamics. Models will examine how animal migratory strategies affect host-parasite dynamics, and how infection rates influence the relative costs and benefits of host migration, with applications to a broad range of animal-pathogen systems. Spatio-temporal information on host movement behaviors is necessary to predict the spread of infectious diseases in migratory animals acting as natural reservoirs of human infectious diseases. Many human emerging infectious diseases result from exposure to zoonotic pathogens harbored by migratory animals, such as avian influenza virus, West Nile virus, Lyme disease, and SARS-like coronaviruses: hence, knowledge of pathogen movement is crucial to assess spatiotemporal incidence patterns. Understanding processes by which animal migration affects parasite transmission and host immunity are therefore crucial for predicting how loss of migrations will influence infectious disease dynamics. Using a highly tractable insect-pathogen model system, my work will shed light on mechanisms that may be important for predicting future changes in the complex relationships between host populations and emerging infectious diseases.