Demographic Analysis of Longitudinal Historical Data

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目是一个有竞争力的授权号R25 HD 049479 -01，这将提供历史人口统计技术分析纵向数据，以学生和研究人员在各种人口统计子领域工作非常有价值的专业培训更新。该项目的理由很简单：历史人口学在人口研究的理论、方法和实践方面有着悠久的历史，特别是在纵向数据的使用方面。历史人口学家目前正在对生育率、死亡率、家庭系统、老龄化和移民等主流人口学研究做出重要贡献。事实上，现有和正在建设的数据库的规模、范围、时间和地理覆盖范围都是前所未有的。由于历史数据往往是纵向和多层次的，它们提出了微妙的方法问题。有意义的分析往往需要专门的方法，如家庭重建和反投影，这是历史研究所独有的。由于它们是基于人口统计学理论的基本原则，在这些方法中训练的学生既为历史研究做好了准备，又能更好地使用复杂的当代资料。历史数据可以成为分析人口统计过程的完美模型。观察到的协变量的数量通常是有限的，历史人口统计学家擅长创造性地使用纵向和谱系信息来构建上下文和随时间变化的协变量。学生学习的纵向分析技术将为使用任何具有时间维度的数据集提供路线图，包括通过NIH资助收集的许多大型当代数据集。该计划将提供正式的课程和与活跃的研究人员的实践经验的机会。学生将被介绍到数据集和先进的统计技术在当前研究的最前沿。 公共卫生相关性：该项目将继续一个跨学科项目，培训学生，研究人员和教师使用和分析历史纵向人口统计数据，以前由批准号R25 HD 049479 -01支持。该计划将利用先进的统计技术，在生育率，死亡率，家庭系统，老龄化和移民方面，利用新的和现有的历史和当代数据集，其中许多数据集是通过NIH资助机制收集的，从而实现和加强人口统计研究。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project is a competing renewal for grant number R25 HD049479-01, which will provide extremely valuable specialized training in historical demographic techniques for analyzing longitudinal data to students and researchers working in a variety of demographic sub-fields. The rational for the project is simple: Historical demography has a long history of important contributions to the theory, methods, and practice of population studies, especially in the use of longitudinal data. Historical demographers are currently making important contributions to mainstream demographic research in fertility, mortality, family systems, aging, and migration. Indeed, the size, scope, and temporal and geographic coverage of databases currently available and under construction are unprecedented. Since historical data are often longitudinal and multi-level, they raise subtle methodological problems. Meaningful analysis often requires specialized methodologies, such as family reconstitution and back projection that are unique to historical research. Since they are based on fundamental principles of demographic theory, students trained in these methods are both prepared for historical research and better able to use complex contemporary sources. Historical data can be a perfect model for analysis of demographic processes. The number of observed covariates is usually limited, and historical demographers have excelled in creatively using longitudinal and genealogical information to construct contextual and time-varying covariates. The longitudinal analysis techniques students learn will provide a roadmap for use with any data set with a time dimension, including many large contemporary data sets collected through NIH funding. This program will offer both formal courses and opportunities for practical experience with active researchers. Students will be introduced to data sets and advanced statistical techniques at the forefront of current research. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project will continue an interdisciplinary project that trains students, researchers and faculty in the use and analysis of historical longitudinal demographic data, previously supported by grant number R25 HD049479-01. This program will enable and enhance demographic research using advanced statistical techniques in fertility, mortality, family systems, aging, and migration, using new and existing historical and contemporary datasets, many of them collected through NIH funding mechanisms.