Optimising cervical screening after the introduction of HPV vaccination in Australia: Modelling of outcomes

该研究项目将有助于制定在澳大利亚引入人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗接种后如何最好地进行子宫颈筛查的决策。该项目将使用计算机模拟技术探索疫苗接种和筛查的不同情况，并确定最佳方法。该项目涉及一组在癌症流行病学、癌症筛查和计算机模拟方法等多个领域具有专业知识的国际合作者。人乳头瘤病毒是导致子宫颈癌的病毒，临床试验表明，给青春期女孩接种人乳头瘤病毒疫苗在预防未来可能导致癌症的疾病方面非常有效。然而，澳大利亚目前有一个非常有效的子宫颈抹片检查方案，在引入疫苗接种后的第一阶段，重要的是妇女继续像往常一样接受检查。从长远来看，HPV疫苗接种预计将减少对巴氏涂片检查的需求。这项研究将非常详细地模拟HPV是如何在澳大利亚人群中传播的，以及接种疫苗后这种情况将如何改变。该模拟将解决未来任何公共HPV疫苗接种计划的重要问题，例如男性是否应该像女性一样接种疫苗。该模拟还将用于确定未来子宫颈抹片检查的最佳起始年龄和频率。研究结果将对政策制定者非常重要。从长远来看，这项研究将确保在引入人乳头瘤病毒疫苗接种后，就巴氏涂片检查的时间和频率制定最佳建议。

This research project will aid decision-making about how best to perform cervical screening in Australia after the introduction of vaccination against the human papillomavirus (or HPV). The project will use computer simulation techniques to explore different scenarios for vaccination and screening and to determine the optimal approach. This project involves a group of international collaborators with expertise in a number of areas including cancer epidemiology, screening for cancer, and computer simulation methods. HPV is the virus responsible for the development of cervical cancer, and clinical trials have demonstrated that HPV vaccines administered to adoloescent girls are very effective at preventing disease that might have led to cancer in the future. However, Australia currently has a very effective Pap smear screening program, and in the first phase after the introduction of vaccination it will be important for women to continue being screened as usual. In the long term, HPV vaccination is expected to reduce the need for Pap smears. The research will involve a very detailed simulation of how HPV is transmitted in the Australian population, and how this will change after vaccination. The simulation will address questions of importance for any future public HPV vaccination program, such as whether males should be vaccinated as well as females. The simulation will also be used to determine the optimal starting age and frequency of Pap smears in the future. The outcomes of the research will be very important for policy-makers. In the long term, this research will ensure that the best recommendations are formulated for the timing and frequency of Pap smears after HPV vaccination is introduced.