AMAZONIAN DEFORESTATION AND THE STRUCTURE OF HOUSEHOLDS (PHASE III)

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目通过关注社会，经济，人口和环境变化的相关过程，解决了巴西亚马逊边境地区人口与环境之间的相互关系。在早期的研究中，我们研究了家庭周期对土地利用的作用，并区分了时期和队列效应，发现财产周期比家庭周期更能解释土地覆盖变化的动态，特别是在第一代之后。在这一阶段的研究中，我们使用森林过渡理论作为统一的概念框架，并扩大我们的重点，以解决城市和农村地区的社会和经济一体化所发挥的作用，以及资本投资在大规模机械化农业和牧场中日益增长的作用，似乎正在改变景观。我们研究土地利用和土地覆被变化的财产和区域层面，并专注于两个机制，森林转型理论提出的经济发展和森林覆盖变化：移民和农业集约化。在前一阶段，我们在第一个研究地点（阿尔塔米拉）对先前调查的家庭和财产进行了后续调查。在这一阶段，我们将对桑塔里姆（我们的第二个研究地点）先前调查的家庭和财产进行后续调查，为这两个先前研究的地区（阿尔塔米拉和桑塔雷姆）增加城市样本，并在马托格罗索州机械化大豆扩张的中心卢卡斯杜里奥韦尔德增加一个新的研究地点，我们将在那里对大规模的农村和城市居民进行采样。我们将获取卫星数据来更新两个先前研究的区域的覆盖范围，以及新研究地点过去30年变化的一套完整数据，因为我们提出了一个强有力的比较设计，使我们能够推断家庭，财产和景观动态中内源性和外源性因素的作用。森林过渡理论的使用将有助于将研究结果的适用性扩展到其他边境地区。加上额外的研究区域，这将是在亚马逊地区进行的最大规模的社会调查，涉及1,000多处房产和2,500多户家庭，覆盖面积超过10,000平方公里。公共卫生相关性：该项目探讨了与巴西亚马逊地区土地利用和土地覆盖变化，特别是森林砍伐有关的社会和经济进程。对当地的影响包括疟疾发病率上升、气温升高（在热带气候中对健康产生不利影响）以及降水模式的变化（可能减少清洁水的供应）。通过对全球碳预算的影响而产生的全球影响包括恶劣天气事件和气候变化对健康的不利影响，这些事件和气候变化直接影响到人类健康，并通过农业生产力下降而间接影响到人类健康。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project addresses the reciprocal relationship between population and environment in frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon by focusing on the linked processes of social, economic, demographic, and environmental change. In earlier studies we examined the role of the domestic cycle on land use and distinguished between period and cohort effects, and discovered that a property cycle explained more of the dynamics of change in land cover than a household cycle, particularly after the first generation. In this phase of the study we use as a unifying conceptual framework Forest Transition Theory, and expand our focus to address the role played by the social and economic integration of urban and rural areas, and the growing role of capital investment in large-scale mechanized agriculture and ranching that appears to be transforming the landscape. We examine land use and land cover change at the property and regional level, and focus on two mechanisms posited by Forest Transition Theory to link economic development and forest cover change: migration and agricultural intensification. In the previous phase, we conducted follow up surveys in previously surveyed households and properties at our first study site (Altamira). In this phase, we will carry out follow up surveys in previously surveyed households and properties in Santarim (our second study site), add urban samples for each of these two previously studied areas (Altamira and Santarem), and add a new study site in the epicenter of mechanized soybean expansion in the state of Mato Grosso, at Lucas do Rio Verde where we will sample both large scale rural and urban residents. We will acquire satellite date to update the coverage for the two previously studied areas, and a complete set of data for the past 30 years of change in the new study site as we propose a strong comparative design that will allow us to make inferences about the role of endogenous and exogenous factors in household, property, and landscape dynamics. The use of Forest Transition Theory will help extend the applicability of findings to other frontier regions. With the additional study area, this will be the largest social survey carried out in the Amazon region, with more than 1,000 properties and more than 2,500 households, covering an area in excess of 10,000 square kilometers. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project explores the social and economic processes associated with land use and land cover change, particularly deforestation, in the Brazilian Amazon. Local impacts include increases in malaria, increases in temperature (with adverse health impacts in a tropical climate), and changes in precipitation patterns (potentially decreasing the availability of clean water). Global impacts, through effects on the global carbon budget, include adverse health impacts of severe weather events and climate changes impacting directly on human health and indirectly through declining agricultural productivity.