Modeling Anthropogenic Effects in the Spread of Infectious Diseases

描述（由申请人提供）：全球化增加了许多物种的易感和受感染个体接触的可能性，因此增加了人类和动物的疾病风险。对于人类疾病，接触取决于人们做出的选择，使易感个体和受感染个体聚集在一起。对于家养动物和野生动物，接触取决于人们使易感动物与传染媒介接触的交易。新出现的传染性人畜共患疾病的传播取决于这两个因素。虽然流行病学家认识到人类行为在疾病传播中的重要性，但他们并没有对所涉及的决策过程进行建模。将这些决策过程嵌入到分区流行病学模型的接触函数中，预计将增强其预测传染病引入和传播的能力，并为评估基于激励的疾病管理政策提供机会（Fenichel等人，2011年）。该研究将把“接触”的经济驱动因素纳入新出现的人类和动物传染病系统的动态模型，并分析有和没有适应性反应的系统动力学。这些模型将根据人们的贸易和旅行决定可能很重要的一系列疾病（最初是H1N1、H5N1、口蹄疫）进行校准。其目的是加强分区流行病学模型的能力(a)预测特定类型疾病传入的可能性和疾病传入后的进程，以及(b)评估对疾病威胁和疾病爆发采取基于奖励的政策反应的潜力。多年来，通过在三个网络上的合作，研究团队已经建立起来：一个RCN - BESTNet；国际生物多样性科学计划DIVERSITAS；以及NIMBIOS工作小组SPIDER。它由数学流行病学家（ASU的Castillo-Chavez和Chowell）、生态学家（Daszak, EcoHEALTH; Kilpatrick， UCSC; Smith, Brown; Kinzig， ASU; Levin, Princeton）和资源经济学家（Perrings， Kuminoff和Fenichel， ASU; Horan， MSU; Springborn， UCD和Finnoff， UW）组成。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Globalization has increased the likelihood that susceptible and infected individuals of many species will be brought into contact, so increasing the disease risks for humans and animals alike. For human diseases, contact depends on choices that people make that bring susceptible and infected individuals together. For domesticated and wild animals, contact depends on the transactions people make that bring susceptible animals into contact with infectious agents. The spread of emerging infectious zoonotic diseases, depends on both things. While epidemiologists recognize the importance of human behavior in the spread of diseases they do not model the decision processes involved. Embedding these decision processes in the contact function in compartmental epidemiological models is expected to enhance their capacity to predict the introduction and spread of infectious diseases, and to provide an opportunity to evaluate incentive based disease management policies (Fenichel et al, 2011). The research will incorporate the economic drivers of 'contact' into dynamic models of emerging human and animal infectious disease systems, and analyze the system dynamics with and without adaptive responses. The models will be calibrated for a set of diseases where people's trade and travel decisions are potentially important (initially H1N1, H5N1,FMD). The aim is to strengthen the power of compartmental epidemiological models (a) to predict the likelihood that diseases of particular types will be introduced and the course of diseases once introduced, and (b) to evaluate the potential for incentive-based policy responses to disease threats and disease outbreaks. The research team has been built over a number of years through collaboration in three networks: an RCN - BESTNet; the international biodiversity science program DIVERSITAS; and a NIMBIOS working group - SPIDER. It comprises mathematical epidemiologists (Castillo-Chavez and Chowell at ASU), ecologists (Daszak, EcoHEALTH; Kilpatrick, UCSC; Smith, Brown; Kinzig, ASU; Levin, Princeton) and resource economists (Perrings, Kuminoff and Fenichel at ASU; Horan, MSU; Springborn, UCD and Finnoff, UW). PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: We expect the research to benefit regulatory bodies responsible for disease risk assessment and management (e.g. NIH; NCID, CDC and the Communicable Diseases Working Group on Emergencies (CD-WGE) at WHO and the OIE). The models will provide 'test-beds' for the evaluation of alternative incentive-based disease management tools of potential value in managing outbreaks and controlling introduction risks.