Extreme Heat and Human Health: Characterizing Vulnerability in a Changing Climate

描述（由申请人提供）：过去50年来人类引起的气候变化的证据已经有据可查。全球地表温度在过去50年中上升了约0.70摄氏度，其中大部分可归因于人为来源。预计气候变化将主要通过改变已知风险因素的分布来影响人类健康，这些风险因素包括极端高温事件、洪水、干旱、空气污染和空气过敏原以及病媒和啮齿动物传播的疾病。特别是，极端高温事件的频率、强度和严重程度预计会增加，这可能会对公众健康产生深远影响。颗粒物和臭氧等空气污染物水平的变化可能会加剧本已严重的高温影响。要制定保护公众健康的干预措施和缓解战略，首先需要清楚地了解极端高温事件如何影响死亡率和发病率，并确定最脆弱的人群。该项目将是一项应用研究，重点关注气候变化引起的极端高温对美国老年人群（年龄> 65岁）心血管疾病发病率和死亡率的影响。我们的目标是：（1）在全国范围内开展一项研究，研究极端高温对脆弱人群心血管疾病死亡率和发病率的影响（2）评估生物、社会经济和环境因素改变极端高温脆弱性的程度;和（3）使用温度预测来估计未来极端高温事件对心血管死亡率和发病率的影响，在一系列关于污染物排放、人口健康、人口年龄结构、气候适应和气候模拟方法的假设下，对2020-2100年期间的全球气候模式进行模拟。该项目汇集了一个多学科的团队，在生物统计学，环境流行病学，大气科学，工程，大型数据库管理和气候学的专业知识。 公共卫生相关性：未来气候变化的一个更强有力的信号是发生更严重的与热有关的极端事件，例如在任何温室气体浓度情景下热浪的长度，频率和强度的增加。该项目将通过严格量化生物、环境和社会经济因素的影响来改善公共卫生和临床实践，这些因素使个人和人群更容易受到极端高温的影响。该项目的研究结果将提供基础广泛的证据，证明这些因素的改变作用，从而为设计保护弱势群体的有针对性的干预措施奠定科学基础。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Evidence of human-caused climate change over the past 50 years has been well documented. Global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.70 C over the past 50 years and much of that increase can be attributed to anthropogenic sources. Climate change is anticipated to affect human health largely by changing the distribution of known risk factors such as extreme heat episodes, floods, droughts, air pollution and aero-allergens, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. In particular, an expected increase in the frequency, intensity, and severity of extreme heat episodes, will likely have a profound impact on the public's health. Changes in the levels of air pollutants such as particulate matter and ozone can potentially exacerbate the already severe effects of heat. Designing interventions and mitigation strategies to protect the public's health will require first developing a clear understanding of how extreme heat episodes affect mortality and morbidity and identifying populations that are most vulnerable. This project will be an applied study focused on the effects of climate change- induced extreme heat on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the US elderly population (age > 65 years). Our goals are to (1) conduct a national study of the cardiovascular mortality and morbidity effects of extreme heat episodes in a vulnerable population (the elderly); (2) evaluate the extent to which biological, socio-economic, and environmental factors modify vulnerability to extreme heat; and (3) estimate the impact on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity of future extreme heat episodes using temperature projections from the most up-to- date global climate model simulations for the 2020-2100 time period under a range of assumptions about pollutant emissions, population health, population age structure, climate adaptation, and climate modeling approaches. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team with expertise in biostatistics, environmental epidemiology, atmospheric science, engineering, large database management, and climatology. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: One of the more robust signals of future climate change is the occurrence of more severe heat- related extremes, such as increases in the length, frequency, and intensity of heat waves under any scenario of greenhouse gas concentrations. This project will improve both public health and clinical practice by rigorously quantifying the effects of biological, environmental, and socio- economic factors that make individuals and populations more vulnerable to extreme heat. By providing broad-based evidence of the modifying effects of these factors, findings from the project will serve as the scientific foundation for designing targeted interventions to protect vulnerable groups.