Extreme Heat and Human Health: Characterizing Vulnerability in a Changing Climate

极端高温与人类健康：描述气候变化中的脆弱性

基本信息

批准号：
8308530
负责人：
ROGER PENG
金额：
$ 24.78万
依托单位：
JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2011-08-01 至 2015-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8308530
关键词：
Accounting Affect Age Agreement Air Pollutants Air Pollution Allergens Biological Biological Factors Biometry Blood Vessels Cardiovascular system Case-Control Studies Climate Communities Data Base Management Databases Disease Droughts Economic Factors Educational Status Elderly Engineering Environmental Epidemiology Environmental Risk Factor Epidemiologic Studies Floods Foundations Frequencies Future Geographic Locations Goals Health Health Status Heat Waves Heating Heterogeneity Human Individual Intervention Length Link Location Lung diseases Maps Methodology Modeling Modification Morbidity - disease rate Output Ozone Particulate Matter Pattern Population Population Study Poverty Predisposition Public Health Public Health Practice Relative (related person)Risk Risk Estimate Risk Factors Rodent Science Seasons Severities Signal Transduction Site Source Statistical Models Structure Surface Temperature Time Time Series Analysis Vulnerable Populations Weather anthropogenesis base climate change clinical practice design evidence base greenhouse gases high risk improved interest models and simulation mortality novel pollutant population health socioeconomics therapy design vector

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Evidence of human-caused climate change over the past 50 years has been well documented. Global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.70 C over the past 50 years and much of that increase can be attributed to anthropogenic sources. Climate change is anticipated to affect human health largely by changing the distribution of known risk factors such as extreme heat episodes, floods, droughts, air pollution and aero-allergens, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. In particular, an expected increase in the frequency, intensity, and severity of extreme heat episodes, will likely have a profound impact on the public's health. Changes in the levels of air pollutants such as particulate matter and ozone can potentially exacerbate the already severe effects of heat. Designing interventions and mitigation strategies to protect the public's health will require first developing a clear understanding of how extreme heat episodes affect mortality and morbidity and identifying populations that are most vulnerable. This project will be an applied study focused on the effects of climate change- induced extreme heat on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the US elderly population (age > 65 years). Our goals are to (1) conduct a national study of the cardiovascular mortality and morbidity effects of extreme heat episodes in a vulnerable population (the elderly); (2) evaluate the extent to which biological, socio-economic, and environmental factors modify vulnerability to extreme heat; and (3) estimate the impact on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity of future extreme heat episodes using temperature projections from the most up-to- date global climate model simulations for the 2020-2100 time period under a range of assumptions about pollutant emissions, population health, population age structure, climate adaptation, and climate modeling approaches. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team with expertise in biostatistics, environmental epidemiology, atmospheric science, engineering, large database management, and climatology.

描述（由申请人提供）：过去50年来人为引起的气候变化的证据已得到充分记录。在过去的50年中，全球表面温度升高了约0.70 C，大部分增加可以归因于人为来源。预计气候变化在很大程度上会通过改变已知危险因素的分布，例如极端热量发作，洪水，干旱，空气污染和空气过敏原，以及载体和啮齿动物传播疾病，从而影响人类健康。特别是，极端热量发作的频率，强度和严重程度的预期增加可能会对公众的健康产生深远的影响。空气污染物（例如颗粒物和臭氧）的水平的变化可能会加剧热量已经严重的影响。设计干预措施和缓解策略来保护公众的健康，将首先对极端热发作如何影响死亡率和发病率以及确定最脆弱的人群有清晰的了解。该项目将是一项针对气候变化引起的极端热量对美国老年人口心血管发病率和死亡率的影响（年龄> 65岁）的影响。我们的目标是（1）对极端热发作的心血管死亡率和发病率的全国研究（老年人）；（2）评估生物学，社会经济和环境因素在多大程度上改变了对极热的脆弱性；（3）估计使用2020-2100时间段的最新全球气候模型模拟，在有关污染物排放，人口健康，人口年龄结构，气候适应和气候模型接近的一系列假设下，使用温度投影对未来极端热发作的心血管死亡率和发病率的影响。该项目汇集了一个具有生物统计学，环境流行病学，大气科学，工程，大型数据库管理和气候学专业知识的多学科团队。