Extreme Heat and Human Health: Characterizing Vulnerability in a Changing Climate

描述(由申请人提供)：过去50年来人类造成气候变化的证据已被很好地记录在案。在过去的50年里，全球地表温度上升了约0.70摄氏度，其中很大一部分可以归因于人为因素。气候变化预计将在很大程度上通过改变已知风险因素的分布来影响人类健康，如极端高温、洪水、干旱、空气污染和空气过敏原，以及病媒和啮齿动物传播的疾病。特别是，预计极端高温事件的频率、强度和严重性的增加，可能会对公众的健康产生深远的影响。颗粒物和臭氧等空气污染物水平的变化可能会加剧高温本已严重的影响。设计保护公众健康的干预措施和缓解战略，首先需要清楚地了解极端高温对死亡率和发病率的影响，并确定最脆弱的人群。该项目将是一项应用研究，重点是气候变化引起的极端高温对美国老年人口(65岁)心血管发病率和死亡率的影响。我们的目标是(1)对易受影响的人群(老年人)的心血管死亡率和发病率影响进行全国性研究；(2)评估生物、社会经济和环境因素对极端高温易感性的影响；以及(3)在关于污染物排放、人口健康、人口年龄结构、气候适应和气候建模方法的一系列假设下，使用最新的全球气候模型模拟2020-2100年期间的温度预测，估计未来极端高温事件对心血管死亡率和发病率的影响。该项目汇集了一支拥有生物统计学、环境流行病学、大气科学、工程学、大型数据库管理和气候学专业知识的多学科团队。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Evidence of human-caused climate change over the past 50 years has been well documented. Global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.70 C over the past 50 years and much of that increase can be attributed to anthropogenic sources. Climate change is anticipated to affect human health largely by changing the distribution of known risk factors such as extreme heat episodes, floods, droughts, air pollution and aero-allergens, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. In particular, an expected increase in the frequency, intensity, and severity of extreme heat episodes, will likely have a profound impact on the public's health. Changes in the levels of air pollutants such as particulate matter and ozone can potentially exacerbate the already severe effects of heat. Designing interventions and mitigation strategies to protect the public's health will require first developing a clear understanding of how extreme heat episodes affect mortality and morbidity and identifying populations that are most vulnerable. This project will be an applied study focused on the effects of climate change- induced extreme heat on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the US elderly population (age > 65 years). Our goals are to (1) conduct a national study of the cardiovascular mortality and morbidity effects of extreme heat episodes in a vulnerable population (the elderly); (2) evaluate the extent to which biological, socio-economic, and environmental factors modify vulnerability to extreme heat; and (3) estimate the impact on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity of future extreme heat episodes using temperature projections from the most up-to- date global climate model simulations for the 2020-2100 time period under a range of assumptions about pollutant emissions, population health, population age structure, climate adaptation, and climate modeling approaches. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team with expertise in biostatistics, environmental epidemiology, atmospheric science, engineering, large database management, and climatology.