A paradigm shift for predictions of freshwater harmful cyanobacteria blooms

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This project aims to advance model predictions to generate novel insights into the triggers of freshwater harmful cyanobacteria blooms. Current models are poorly adapted for this purpose because they fail to account for antecedent environmental forcing. The project is expected to create new knowledge of cyanobacteria dynamics from simulating the adaptive responses of individual cyanobacteria cells, colonies or filaments to temperature, light and nutrient history. Three field studies will be used to validate a new individual based model. The outcomes of this project will be valuable for managing freshwater ecosystems that are increasingly subject to blooms in a warming climate, and for testing suitable mitigation and control strategies.