2021 State of the Environment Report Marine Chapter – Expert Assessment – Pressure – Climate Change – Sea surface temperature and salinity

《2021年环境状况报告(SOE)》的海洋章节包含了从海洋数据流开发的多个专家模板。这一元数据记录描述了专家评估“对海洋环境的压力--气候变化--海表面温度和盐度”。<br/> *完整的专家评估的PDF，包括图表(如果提供)，可在本记录的“在线资源”部分下载，名称为“专家评估2021--海表面温度和盐度”*<br/> <br/> <br/> 压力说明<br/> 海洋温度和盐度是塑造澳大利亚从海岸到大陆架边缘和开阔海域的海洋环境的基本水特性。气候变化驱动的海表面温度和盐度趋势是由于人为影响导致这些水性质的变化。海洋表面温度的长期趋势受大气环流和海-气热通量、海洋热输送和混合层深度的变化控制。海面盐度的长期趋势是由海-气界面蒸发和降水的变化、海洋盐分输送、河流径流以及冰川和海冰的融化和冻结引起的。<br/> <br/> 数据流(S)在专家评估中的应用<br/> 数据集要么覆盖全球，包括澳大利亚，要么覆盖澳大利亚特定的地点。有些数据产品包括可追溯到1950年代或更早的现场数据来源(如WOD和ERSSTv5)，而另一些数据产品(OISST v2.1)则将卫星遥感与1980年代以来的其他数据产品结合在一起。Argo计划始于2000年，对全球开阔的海洋进行采样，2021年有近4000个活跃的浮标。<br/> <br/> <br/> 2021年国企评估总结[详见所附专家评估报告]<br/> <br/> ·2021年·<br/> --评估等级：-非常高的影响：气候变化对海洋表面温度和盐度的影响影响澳大利亚的海洋环境，过去五年记录的海洋生态系统的高度影响和持久变化。<br/> --评估趋势：--恶化：气候变化对海洋表面温度和盐度的影响，最近的研究和预测表明，生态系统面临的压力继续增加。<br/> --置信度：--充分：高质量的证据和高水平的共识。观测和模型表明，气候变化对海表面温度和盐度趋势的影响，1950年代之前的数据稀少且减少。<br/> --信心趋势：--充分：高质量证据和高水平共识。通过持续的长期监测、通过现场和遥感改进数据收集以及与海洋模型结合，可以将气候变化对趋势的影响与其他变异性来源区分开来。<br/> --可比性：--有点可比性：年级和趋势与上一次评估有些可比性。这项评估考虑了气候变化对海表面温度和盐度的影响，这两项以前被分成两个评估。<br/> <br/> <br/> 2016年国企考核以来的变化<br/> 这项评估与2016年的评估不同，2016年的评估包括关于“气候变化--海表面温度”(评估级别：高影响)和“海洋盐度”(评估级别：低影响)对海洋环境的压力的两项单独评估。<br/> Https://catalogue.aodn.org.au:443/geonetwork/srv/api/records/cca8c5ce-4b21-406d-b20c-7b333f8e605c<br/> Https://catalogue.aodn.org.au:443/geonetwork/srv/api/records/86ec16dd-99b7-400d-b054-d218da14858c<br/> 总体而言，现有的数据、当前的时间序列产品和证据表明，气候变化对海洋表面温度的影响比作为澳大利亚海洋环境压力的海洋表面盐度的影响更多。对“气候变化--海表面温度和盐度”的综合评估侧重于气候变化对海表面温度的影响，并承认它们在过去五年中对澳大利亚海洋环境的影响。此外，通过海洋环境中的物理反馈，海表面盐度趋势与海表面温度趋势相互关联。

The Marine chapter of the 2021 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Pressures on the marine environment - climate change - Sea surface temperature and salinity ". <br /> ***A PDF of the full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided) is downloadable in the "On-line Resources" section of this record as "EXPERT ASSESSMENT 2021 - Sea surface temperature and salinity "***<br /> <br /> ----------------------------------------<br /> <br /> DESCRIPTION OF PRESSURE<br /> Ocean temperature and salinity are fundamental water properties that shape Australia’s marine environment, from the coast to the continental shelf edge and open ocean. Climate change driven trends in sea surface temperature and salinity are changes in these water properties owing to anthropogenic influences. Long-term trends in sea surface temperatures are controlled by changes in the atmospheric circulation and air-sea heat fluxes, ocean heat transport, and the mixed layer depth. Long-term trends in sea surface salinity are caused by changes in evaporation and precipitation at the air-sea interface, ocean salt transport, river runoff, and melting and freezing of glacial and sea ice. <br /> <br /> DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT<br /> Data sets had either global coverage, including Australia, or at Australian specific sites. Some data products included in situ data sources dating back to the 1950s or earlier (e.g. WOD and ERSSTv5), while others (OISST v2.1) incorporate satellite remote sensing with other data products since the 1980s. The Argo program started in 2000 and samples the open ocean globally, with nearly 4000 active floats in 2021. <br /> <br /> ----------------------------------------<br /> <br /> 2021 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details]<br /> <br /> • 2021 •<br /> --Assessment grade:-- Very high impact: Climate change influence on sea surface temperature and salinity affects Australian marine environment with high-impact, enduring changes to marine ecosystems documented in past five years. <br /> --Assessment trend:-- Deteriorating: Climate change influence on sea surface temperature and salinity evident from recent studies and with projections indicating continued increasing pressure on ecosystems. <br /> --Confidence grade:-- Adequate: High-quality evidence and high level of consensus. Observations and models indicate climate change influence on sea surface temperature and salinity trends, with sparse and reduced data availability prior to the 1950s. <br /> --Confidence trend:-- Adequate: High-quality evidence and high level of consensus. Separating climate change influence on trends from other sources of variability can be conducted with sustained long-term monitoring, improved data collection by in situ and remote sensing, and integration with ocean models. <br /> --Comparability:-- Somewhat comparable: Grade and trend are somewhat comparable to the previous assessment. This assessment considers climate change influences on sea surface temperature and salinity, which was previously separated as two assessments. <br /> <br /> ----------------------------------------<br /> <br /> CHANGES SINCE 2016 SOE ASSESSMENT<br /> This assessment differs from the 2016 assessment, which included two separate assessments on the pressures on the marine environment from “Climate change – sea surface temperature” (Assessment Grade: High Impact) and “Ocean salinity” (Assessment Grade: Low impact).<br /> https://catalogue.aodn.org.au:443/geonetwork/srv/api/records/cca8c5ce-4b21-406d-b20c-7b333f8e605c<br /> https://catalogue.aodn.org.au:443/geonetwork/srv/api/records/86ec16dd-99b7-400d-b054-d218da14858c<br /> Overall, there is more data available, current time series products, and evidence for climate change influence on sea surface temperature than for sea surface salinity as a pressure on the Australian marine environment. The combined assessment for “Climate change – sea surface temperature and salinity” is weighted toward the climate change influence on sea surface temperature and in acknowledging their impacts on the Australian marine environment over the past five years. In addition, sea surface salinity trends are interconnected with sea surface temperature trends through physical feedbacks in the marine environment.