Better targeting of preventive services using epidemiological modelling

这项研究计划的目的是提高澳大利亚慢性病预防的有效性。重点是开发流行病学模型，帮助政策制定者更明智地选择资助哪些预防方案，提高临床医生提供准确预防建议的能力，并提高消费者对预防活动(可能涉及他们自己或他们的社区)做出决定的能力。澳大利亚未来几年的人口趋势将由越来越多的老年人和持续增加的平均寿命主导。预防保健的一个优先事项是尽可能长时间地使老年人保持健康活跃的状态，不患慢性病。实现这一目标的选择正在增加，但在可能的效果和成本效益方面有所不同。由于预防方案的许多成本和收益发生在主要干预试验的时间尺度之外，预测长期收益需要通过称为流行病学建模的过程整合来自多个来源的信息，包括试验、流行病学研究、风险因素调查和人口学。该项目对消费者、相关卫生专业人员以及土著和托雷斯海峡岛民具有重大意义。该项目的一个成果将是使消费者能够就其预防性保健作出明智的决定，并将协助相关保健专业人员向患者提供预防性建议。这些人包括职业卫生护士、卫生促进官员、土著卫生工作者和护士从业者。

The purpose of this program of research is to improve the effectiveness of chronic disease prevention in Australia. The focus is to develop epidemiological models that can assist policy-makers to make more informed choices of which preventive programs to fund, improve the ability of clinicians to provide accurate preventive advice and to increase the ability of consumers to make decisions about preventive activities (that may relate to themselves or their communities). Australian population trends over coming years will be dominated by increasing numbers of elderly and a continuing increase in average lifespan. A priority for preventive healthcare is to maintain the elderly in a healthy active state, free of chronic disease, for as long as possible. Options to achieve this are increasing but vary in terms of likely effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Since many of the costs and benefits of preventive programs occur beyond the time-scale of major intervention trials, the prediction of long-term benefits requires the integration of information from multiple sources including trials, epidemiological studies, risk-factor surveys and demography through a process referred to as epidemiological modelling. This project has major relevance to consumers, allied health professionals and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. One outcome of the project will be to allow consumers to make informed decisions about their preventive health care and will assist allied health professionals providing preventive advice to patients. These include occupational health nurses, health promotion officers, Aboriginal health workers and nurse practitioners.