Past and future fire dynamics: implications for central arctic caribou and dependent communities

生态学家和自然资源管理者往往关注的是模式而不是过程、持续时间较短的时间尺度以及孤立的商品或物种。未能在有意义的规模上解决相互作用的生态过程，限制了我们对未来环境变化的预测能力。对长期生态系统动态缺乏了解对加拿大北部尤其重要，那里的生态系统正受到一系列人类发展的压力，气候变化的潜在影响可能是极端的。这种负面的相互作用可能是目前该国中部北极贫瘠驯鹿数量下降的一个因素。大多数牛群已经减少了50%以上，管理机构和社区正在努力了解和解决问题。预测性气候模型预测加拿大北部北方森林和北极冻原地区的天气将发生重大变化。温度和降水的变化可能会改变雪条件，减少在冬季觅食陆生地衣时的营养回报，地衣是牧草的主要饲料物种。与气候变化相关的温暖天气也有可能改变北美驯鹿冬季范围内的火灾制度。火灾的增加可能会减少陆地地衣的总丰度和分布。我们的战略项目赠款将在一个预测模型中整合对火灾动力学、驯鹿生态和驯鹿人类使用模式的实地研究，旨在了解气候变化对巴瑟斯特驯鹿冬季范围内贫瘠驯鹿分布的长期影响。这项工作的目标有与地区、联邦和原住民政策制定者和规划者相关的短期目标(即目前的下降)和长期目标(即战略火灾管理、土地利用规划、社区健康)。在更广泛的范围内，这项工作的创新将推进动物、植物和自然干扰生态学的科学，并将其与社区食物系统和生态系统建模相结合。

Ecologists and natural resources managers often focus on patterns not processes, short duration time scales, and isolated commodities or species. A failure to address interacting ecological processes at meaningful scales limits our ability to develop predictions of future environmental change. This lack of understanding of long-term ecosystem dynamics is especially relevant to Canada's north where ecosystems are under pressure from a range of human developments and the potential effects of climate change may be extreme. Such negative interactions might be a factor in the current decline of the country's central Arctic barren-ground caribou. Most herds have declined by more than 50% and management agencies and communities are struggling for understanding and solutions.Predictive climate models forecast a substantial change in the weather of the northern boreal forest and the arctic tundra regions of Canada. Changes in temperature and precipitation could alter snow conditions decreasing the nutrient returns when foraging for terrestrial lichens, the primary forage species for Rangifer during winter. Warmer weather in association with climate change also has the potential to alter fire regimes across the winter range of caribou. An increase in fire could reduce the total abundance and distribution of terrestrial lichen.Our Strategic Project Grant will integrate field-based research on fire dynamics, caribou ecology, and human use patterns of caribou within a forecasting model designed to understand the long-term implications of climate change for the distribution of barren-ground caribou on the Bathurst herd's winter range. Objectives of this work have short-term (i.e., current decline) and long-term (i.e., strategic fire management, land use planning, community health) objectives with relevance to territorial, federal, and First Nations policy makers and planners. At a broader scale, innovation from this work will advance and integrate the science of animal, plant and natural disturbance ecology with community food systems and ecosystem modelling.