Weather research for optimum integration of wind power into a hydro-dominant power grid

在鼓励绿色能源发展的大胆举措中，卑诗水电（一家国有企业）已被政府指示从经批准的私营风能公司购买电力。由于风力发电不可靠且不能储存，卑诗水电公司必须对其主导的水力发电进行优化补偿，以适应间歇性的风力发电。考虑到所涉及的不同利益相关者，在面对不确定的天气预报时，这种优化是极其困难的。我们的研究将为水电水库流域提供改进的降雨预报，并改进风力涡轮机农场的风力预报，以便卑诗水电工程师更好地优化他们的生产。我们将使用多个天气预报计算机代码来预测不同天气结果的概率。这样的概率预测使电力生产更安全、更经济。特别是，我们将通过以下方式来改进概率预报：(1)参与一个实地项目，更好地测量从太平洋上空接近加拿大的天气；(2)对计算机化天气预报进行校正，提供准确的概率信息；(3)提出了一种消除计算机预报误差的新方法。然后，我们将使用这些改进的预报为卑诗水电公司提供每个水电和风能设施的每日风力和降水预报。随着这些预报数据的积累，我们将计算不同电站之间的平均时差和天气强度。利用这些统计平均值，我们将对水电和风能站点的复杂网络进行经济分析，使卑诗水电工程师能够优化电力生产。

In a bold move to encourage green-energy development, BC Hydro (a Crown corporation) has been directed by the government to purchase power from approved private wind-energy companies. Because wind power is unreliable and cannot be stored, BC Hydro must optimally compensate its dominant hydroelectric production to accommodate the intermittent wind-power. Given the diverse stakeholders involved, this optimization is extremely difficult in the face of uncertain weather forecasts. Our research will provide improved rain forecasts for hydroelectric reservoir watersheds, and improved wind forecasts at wind-turbine farms, so that BC Hydro engineers can better optimize their production. We will use multiple weather-forecast computer codes to predict the chance of different weather outcomes. Such probabilistic forecasts allow safer and more economical power production. In particular, we will work to improve the probabilistic forecasts by: (1) participating in a field program to better measure the weather that approaches Canada from over the Pacific; (2) calibrating the computerizedweather forecasts to give accurate probability information; and (3) developing a new way to remove forecast errors from computerized forecasts. We will then use these improved forecasts to provide BC Hydro with daily wind and precipitation forecasts for each hydroelectric and wind-energy facility. As data from these forecasts accumulate, we will calculate average time differences and weather intensities between the different power sites. Using these statistical averages, we will do economic analyses for the complex network of hydro- and wind-energy sites, to allow BC Hydro engineers to optimize power production.