Models of chemical fate in the environment

现代社会受益于大量化学品的使用，包括石油和石油副产品、溶剂、杀虫剂、药品和阻燃剂。大多数都是相对无害的，不会对人类的健康或我们赖以生存的环境构成威胁。然而，有些是有问题的，因为它们可能长期存在(例如多氯联苯)，它们可能在鱼和鸟类等生物体内积累(例如滴滴涕)，它们可能具有很大的毒性(例如二恶英)，它们可能被长途运输到极地地区(例如六氯苯)。而不是等待问题出现(到那时可能已经太晚了！)在污染环境和造成不利影响之前，最好是积极主动地识别有问题的化学品。实现这一目标的最好方法是使用数学模型来预测这些化学物质在环境中的行为以及它们可能对生态系统构成的风险。本研究项目的目的是开发此类模型，通过将预测与实际观测进行比较来测试它们以确保可靠性，并将它们传播给用户社区。这一直是并将继续是特伦特大学加拿大环境模型中心的重点。该中心目前每月通过互联网向近40个国家传播模型，每月约500个。第一个是区域环境(例如加拿大的一个省)的化学命运，包括土壤、水、沉积物和空气，以及对包括人类在内的动植物的暴露和风险。其次是杀虫剂的命运，这些杀虫剂可能会对食物和场外场所造成污染。第三是室内环境，这很重要，因为很多时间都是在通风受限的情况下呆在室内的。最后是评估化学品是否可能长途运输的模型，特别是到加拿大北极的运输。

Modern society benefits from the use of a large number of chemicals including petroleum and petroleum by-products, solvents, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and fire retardants. Most are relatively innocuous and pose no threat to the health of humans or the environment on which we depend. Some, however, are problematic in that they may persist for long periods of time (e.g. PCBs), they may accumulate in organisms such as fish and birds (e.g. DDT), they may be very toxic (e.g. dioxins) and they may be transported long distances to polar regions (e.g., HCB). Rather than wait for problems to emerge (by which time it may be too late!) it is preferable to be proactive and identify problem chemicals before they contaminate the environment and cause adverse effects. The best way to accomplish this is to use mathematical models to predict how these chemicals will behave in the environment and what risk they may pose to the ecosystem.The purpose of this research project is to develop such models, test them to ensure reliability by comparing their predictions against actual observations, and to disseminate them to the user-community. This has been and continues to be the focus of the Canadian Environmental Modelling Centre at Trent University. The Centre currently disseminates models via the internet at a rate of about 500 per month to nearly 40 countries.More specifically, this project will focus on four areas. The first is chemical fate in regional environments (e.g. a Canadian province) including soils, water, sediments, and air, and exposure and risks to flora, and fauna including humans. Second is the fate of pesticides that may cause contamination of food and off-site locations. Third is indoor environments which are important because much time is spent indoors under conditions of restricted ventilation. Finally are models that will assess if a chemical is likely to be transported long distances, especially to the Canadian Arctic.