The emerging threat of Ca decline: quantifying current and predicting future Ca levels and their effects on aquatic biota in a 1600 lake watershed

土壤，溪流，池塘和湖水钙浓度的持续下降对加拿大地盾东部的森林和湖泊构成了新的威胁，但我们目前没有量化这种威胁的严重程度和空间范围所需的信息，我们也不知道这种威胁如何受到持续的森林干扰的影响。在地理空间统计学家，水生生态毒理学家和两个流域生态化学家的新合作中，我们将：1）评估当前钙下降对一个重要的富钙生物群的威胁（浮游动物）在一个大的1600湖安大略流域;以及2）量化未来的酸沉降率如何与关于允许的SO2排放的国际协议相联系，森林火灾频率与气候变化有关，伐木业可能会改变钙下降的威胁。钙下降是一个新出现的环境问题，但可能会影响加拿大东部的大片森林和地表沃茨，以及美国东部和西欧的类似生态系统。我们的目标是确定这一威胁的严重程度在一个敏感的分水岭作为必要的第一步，在评估如何严重的钙下降的问题可能成为加拿大。

The ongoing decline of soil, stream, pond and lake water Ca concentrations poses an emerging threat to the forests and lakes of the eastern Canadian Shield, but we currently do not have the information needed to quantify the severity and spatial extent of this threat, nor do we know how this threat might be affected by ongoing forest disturbances of fire and logging. In this new collaboration of a geospatial statistician, an aquatic ecotoxicologist, and two watershed biogeochemists, we will: 1) assess the current threat of Ca decline to one important group of Ca-rich biota (the animal plankton) in a large 1600-lake Ontario watershed; and 2) quantify how future acid deposition rates linked to international agreements on allowable SO2 emissions, forest fire frequencies linked to a changing climate, and logging practises might alter the threat of Ca decline. Ca decline is an emerging environmental issue, but one that might affect large tracts of eastern Canadian forests and surface waters, and similar ecosystems in the eastern USA and western Europe. Our objective is to determine the severity of this threat in one sensitive watershed as a necessary first step in assessing how serious the issue of Ca decline might become for Canada.