Assessment of ground movement hazard and risk: combining numerical simulation and geospatial analysis for decision support

建议的研究项目集中于识别和管理斜坡稳定危险，目的是尽量提高公众安全和减少对基础设施的影响。大型滑坡，如西部的Frank和Hope滑坡，以及东部的Saint-Jean-Vianney和Lemieux滑坡，都将注意力集中在理解这些类型的故障上。其他研究人员和政府机构正在做出色的工作，以评估加拿大这些材料中疑似山体滑坡的可能性。 在欧洲，已开展了一系列项目，以制定绘制滑坡实例图（库存图）和估计（定性）或计算（定量）滑坡敏感性图的方法。最近的滑坡风险图，考虑到失败的概率和后果，正在制作，作为量化失败后果的方法。在加拿大，这些方法的应用有限，部分原因是缺乏详细的灾害测绘，以及与欧洲相比人口密度低得多。然而，随着人们对风险责任的主动评估和保护公共安全免受自然灾害的日益关注，应该应用滑坡风险评估程序。 研究将包括以下一般程序：i）收集可用的地质和岩土工程数据，ii）现场数据收集，包括激光扫描和材料特性测量和采样，iii）开发数值模型，以模拟输入参数变化的过程和影响，iv）将现场数据和数值建模结果整合到地理空间数据库中，并从数据库中：（五）开发灾害地图和用于评估灾害的决策支持工具，（六）评价滑坡敏感性地图，（七）开发故障后果评估程序。这些步骤将适用于大型复杂滑坡，落石灾害和敏感粘土边坡。 八名学生将在这些项目上工作：3名目前正在计划中，5名新学生将被招募。75%的资金将用于提供学生工资;余额将用于支持实地工作和参加会议。

The research projects proposed are focused on identification and management of slope stability hazards with the objective of maximizing public safety and minimizing impact to infrastructure. Large landslides, such as the Frank and Hope slides in the West, and the Saint-Jean-Vianney and Lemieux slides in the East, have focused attention on understanding these types of failures. Excellent work is being done by other researchers and government agencies to assess the potential for suspected landslides in these materials in Canada.         In Europe, a series of projects have been undertaken to develop methodologies to map landslide instances (inventory maps), and to estimate (qualitative) or calculate (quantitative) landslide susceptibility maps. More recently landslide risk maps, considering both the probability and consequence of failure, are being produced, as approaches to quantify failure consequence are developed. Application of these approaches are limited in Canada due, in part, to lack of detailed scale hazard mapping, and due to the much reduced population density as compared to Europe. However, with increasing interest in pro-active assessment of risk liabilities, and protection of public safety against natural hazards, landslide risk assessment procedures should be applied.     The research will include the following general procedure: i) collection of available geological and geotechnical data, ii) field data collection including laser scanning and material property measurement and sampling, iii) development of numerical models to simulate the processes and influence of variation in input parameters, iv) integration of field data and numerical modelling results into a geospatial database, and from the database: v) development of hazard maps and decision support tools for assessing the hazard, vi) evaluation of landslide susceptibility maps, and vii) development of failure consequence assessment procedures. These steps will be applied to large complex landslides, rockfall hazards and sensitive clay slopes.     Eight students will work on these projects: 3 currently in program, and 5 new students to be recruited. 75% of the funding will provide student salaries; the balance will support field work and conference attendance.