Spatial Simulation Modelling of Containment Strategies for Pandemic Influenza

这项研究将开发一个空间模拟模型来预测大流行性流感在澳大利亚的传播。由此产生的软件程序将很容易被疾病管理人员在疾病爆发期间和之前使用，以预测各种控制措施对疾病传播的规模、速度和地点的影响，通过一个城市、州或国家。在澳大利亚爆发疫情后“实时”部署，它将用于预测感染传播和一系列干预措施的遏制效果。该模型将使用在疫情爆发初期获得的数据来改进模型，从而使每日传播预测更加准确；在2001年英国口蹄疫暴发期间也出现了类似的空间模型使用情况。在大流行前阶段，将可利用模拟模型预测一系列应对措施的遏制效果，如旅行限制、关闭工作场所和学校、接种疫苗和使用抗病毒药物。具体而言，该项目将应用模拟模型来确定有限资源的最佳利用，例如抗病毒药物的“何时何地”靶向和疫苗的初始供应。

This research will develop a spatial simulation model to predict the spread of pandemic influenza within Australia. The resulting software program will be readily usable by disease managers, both during and prior to an outbreak, to predict the effect of various containment measures on the size, rate and location of disease spread, through a city, state or the nation. Deployed in _real time� after an outbreak has started in Australia, it will be used to predict infection spread and the containment effect of a range of interventions. The model would use data obtained during initial stages of the outbreak to refine the model, so allowing accuracy in daily spread prediction; similar use of spatial models occurred during the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the UK. In a pre-pandemic period the simulation model will be available to predict the containment effect of a range of response measures, such as travel restrictions, workplace and school closures, vaccination and antiviral usage. Specifically, this project will apply the simulation model to determine optimal use of limited resources such as the _when and where� targeting of antiviral drugs and initial supplies of vaccine.