Seed transfers of boreal conifers in an uncertain future climate

本研究的目的是i。在调查的能力，两种不同的气候相关的方法，空间模型物种的未来分布在人口水平下的气候变化，因此ii。为林业部门提供知识和方法，以成功转移其最具经济重要性物种的关键种群。所以，三。这项研究将为林业的总体保护目标提供方向：即保护我们主要森林物种的适应潜力（生物多样性）。我从范围广泛的种源试验和我自己的区域共同花园试验中收集的种群水平数据，以及我在过去20年中开发的方法，将用于实现这些目标。群体适宜性模型和响应函数将用作预测模型，并将通过i.比较两种方法的结果，以及ii.追溯（预测过去）的每一种方法。

This research proposal is directed i. at investigating the ability of two different climate correlative approaches that spatially model species' future distributions at the population level under a changing climate, and thus ii. at providing the Forestry Sector with the knowledge and methods to make successful transfers of key populations of their most economically important species. Also, iii. this research will provide direction to the overarching conservation goal of forestry: i.e. preserving the adaptive potential (biodiversity) of our key forest species. Population level data that I have collected from range-wide provenance tests and from my own regional common garden trials, together with the methodologies that I have developed over the past 20 years, will be used to achieve these goals. Population suitability models and response functions will be used as predictive models, and validation will be attempted by i. comparing results of the two approaches and ii. retrodiction (predicting the past) by each method.