Real options and risk hedging in a global supply chain

最近全球经济环境的发展，包括全球范围内贸易壁垒和区域和多国经济区的减少，促使许多加拿大和国际公司开始在其他国家(如印度、中国和墨西哥)发展业务。在海外寻找新的机会时，他们也面临着许多风险，包括不确定的汇率、不确定的需求、较短的产品生命周期和不稳定的产品价格。例如，外汇汇率的波动可能会造成现金流不稳定，甚至破产。拟议的研究将使用运筹学和金融工程工具来开发一种全球供应链设计方法，该方法可被不同国家的制造设施、供应商和市场成功使用，同时对冲来自不确定的需求、随机的产品生命周期、不确定的汇率和可变的产品价格的风险。可以通过两种方式对冲风险：改变运营战略；交易金融工具，以便公司能够利用其资源产生更低的成本和更高的收入。这项研究将提供有效的风险对冲工具和理论，以及针对全球风险的金融和运营对冲战略的综合方法的软件。这一分析将为从业者建立有效的全球供应链战略提供指导，使他们的利润最大化，并最终为他们的新风险提供一系列新的机会和对冲策略。随着全球供应链的重要性与日俱增，这项研究将对成功的加拿大企业发挥关键作用，增加它们的利润收益，同时降低它们的下行风险。

Recent developments in the global economic environment, including worldwide reductions of trade barriers and regional and multi-country economic zones, have led many Canadian and international companies to start developing their businesses in other countries (such as India, China, and Mexico). In seeking new opportunities abroad, they also face many risks, including uncertain exchange rates, uncertain demands, shorter product life cycles, and variable product prices. For example, fluctuation in foreign exchange rates can create unstable cash flows, and even bankruptcy. The proposed research will employ operations research and financial engineering tools to develop an approach to a global supply chain design that can be used successfully by manufacturing facilities, suppliers, and markets in different countries, while at the same time hedging risks from uncertain demands, stochastic product life cycles, uncertain exchange rates, and variable product prices. Risks can be hedged in two ways: changing operational strategies; and trading financial instruments, so that the company can leverage its resources to yield lower costs and higher revenues. This research will provide effective risk hedging tools and theories, and software for an integrated approach to financial and operational hedging strategies against global risks. The analysis will provide guidelines for practitioners to establish effective global supply chain strategies that will maximize their profits, and will ultimately provide a series of new opportunities and hedging strategies for their new risks. With the increasing importance of the global supply chain, this study will play a critical role for successful Canadian businesses, increasing their profit gain and while reducing their downside risk.