Modeling of extreme precipitation processes in consideration of climate variability and climate change

在许多地区，极端灾害和由此造成的洪水是自然灾害造成死亡和财产损失的首要原因。特别是，在过去十年中，加拿大各地发生了一些对环境和社会经济活动产生重大影响的极端风暴事件，包括1996年在魁北克萨格奈地区造成严重洪水的严重风暴和1997年在马尼托巴发生的严重红河洪水事件。此外，科学界目前已达成广泛共识，认为全球气候正在发生变化，可能在今后几十年对人类社会和自然环境产生深远影响。此外，人们认识到，极端气候事件的频率和强度的变化可能比平均气候的变化对环境和人类活动产生更大和更广泛的影响。因此，迫切需要提高我们对未来几十年极端风暴发生的理解，并开发新的工具，以提高我们更准确地评估这种极端天气对加拿大社会，经济和自然环境的影响的能力。因此，拟议研究计划的总体目标是，通过创建和开发用于进行高质量影响评估的改进工具和方法，提高对极端风暴发生情况的科学认识，并提高社会管理与这些极端事件有关的风险的能力。 拟议的研究课题是重要的，因为它几乎完全涉及的问题，已收到相当大的关注，在加拿大和国外，由于大量的投资参与。 预计这项研究的结果将最终帮助工程师开发更具成本效益的方法来设计和管理水资源系统，并将协助政策制定者制定更有力的政策，以减轻这些极端事件的影响，从而促进国家经济竞争力，公共政策的有效性和生活质量。

Extreme rainfalls and the resulting floods were the number one cause of deaths and property damage by natural disasters in many regions. In particular, a number of extreme storm events with significant impacts on the environment and socio-economic activities have occurred during the last decade across Canada, including those severe storms causing the heavy flood in Saguenay region in Quebec in 1996 and the critical Red River flooding event in Manitoba in 1997. Moreover, there is now a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is changing in ways that are likely to have a profound impact on human society and the natural environment over the coming decades. Furthermore, it has been recognized that changes in the frequency and magintude of extreme climate events are likely to have more substantial and widespread impacts on the environment and human activities than changes in the mean climate. There is hence an urgent need to improve our understanding on the occurrence of extreme storms in the coming decades, and to develop new tools for improving our ability to assess more accurately the impacts of such extremes on Canada's social, economic, and natural environment. The overall objective of the proposed research plan is therefore to advance scientific knowledge on the occurence of extreme storms, and to improve society's ability to manage the risks associated with these extremes by creating and developing improved tools and methods for producing high-quality impact assessments. The proposed research topic is important because it deals almost exclusively with issues that have been received considerable attention in Canada and abroad due to substantial investment involved. It is expected that results of this study will ultimately help engineers to develop more cost-effective methods for design and management of water resource systems, and will assist policy-makers in formulating more robust policies to mitigate the impacts of these extreme events, thereby contributing to national economic competitiveness, the effectiveness of public policy, and the quality of life.