Population viability of Ontario woodland caribou in relation to habitat-mediated movement patterns, forest harvest, and climate change

安大略省林地驯鹿恢复的一个关键不确定性是，有多少栖息地足以将驯鹿灭绝风险控制在可接受的水平。种群生存能力分析，通常被称为PVA，可以非常有用地估计灭绝风险如何与景观尺度上的栖息地组成随时间变化，这对资源管理者来说是有意义的。通过确定复杂的生态联系和影响人口率的基于生境的因素之间的权衡，当与其他土地利用平衡时，灭绝的风险可以降低到可容忍的水平。我们的项目旨在根据卫星遥测数据开发驯鹿、狼和驼鹿的运动和栖息地使用模型。这些迁移子模型将链接到安大略省驯鹿的空间显式PVA模型中，包含了迁徙、栖息地选择、人口统计学、捕食风险、森林演替和火灾和火灾造成的干扰的真实模式。

A key uncertainty regarding recovery of woodland caribou in Ontario is how much habitat is enough to manage caribou extinction risk at an acceptable level. Population Viability Analysis, often termed PVA, can be very useful in estimating how extinction risk should vary in relation to habitat composition at the landscape scale over time horizons that are meaningful for resource managers. By identifying complex ecological linkages and trade-offs between habitat-based factors influencing demographic rates, the risk of extinction can be reduced to tolerable levels when balanced against other land uses. Our project is designed to develop models of movement and habitat use by caribou, wolves, and moose, based on satellite telemetry data. These movement sub-models will be linked into a spatially-explicit PVA model for Ontario caribou, incorporating realistic patterns of migration, habitat selection, demography, predation risk, forest succession, and disturbance due to both fire and