Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies

利用探测和归因研究改进澳大利亚区域气候变化预测。政府间气候变化专门委员会在2001年得出结论认为，“过去50年观测到的大多数变暖可能是由于温室气体浓度的增加”，“人为气候变化将持续许多世纪”。该项目将减少对澳大利亚未来气候变化预测的不确定性。我们将比较模式模拟的气候变化在二十世纪与观测到的全球和澳大利亚地区的变化。这些比较将与统计模型一起用于估计澳大利亚气候未来变化的概率分布。

Improving Projections of Regional Climate Change for Australia Using Detection and Attribution Studies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in 2001 that "most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" and that "anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries". This project will reduce uncertainties in projections of future climate change for Australia. We will compare model-simulated climate changes during the twentieth century with observed changes globally and in the Australian region. These comparisons will be used with statistical modelling to estimate probability distributions for future changes in Australian climate.