The effects of multiple stressors on the biogeochemistry of lakes and their catchments: mass budgets, long-term trends and modeling

本提案的主要目标是评估人类活动在引起湖泊、溪流和集水区的环境变化方面如何相互作用。 我将利用现有的长期数据库，其中包括气候，水文，化学和物理数据测量在过去35年的一套8个湖泊，24条溪流及其集水区，位于加拿大北部的生态区南部。 这个环境数据库是世界上最详细和最长期的记录之一。 对于某些数据类型，如湖泊化学质量平衡，它是现有的最完整的数据集。 此外，我将利用短期数据测量在过去3年的锡姆科湖流域的几个子集水区是北方生态区南部，有非常不同的化学。 这里考虑的压力是气候变化，营养，酸沉降和微量金属污染。 我将使用这些数据来测试一些假设，例如，控制生态系统酸化和从酸化中恢复的气候因素随后会影响营养物（磷）水平，从而影响湖泊生产力。 我还将研究溶解有机物循环的变化，这可能导致温室气体产生和微量金属可用性的变化。 我们将重点关注开发模型，使我们能够对生态系统的未来状态进行定量预测。 我将使用现有的数据来修改现有的酸化模型，包括氮物种和无机和有机氮之间的转换，这种改进将允许更准确地估计酸的临界负荷加拿大环境。

The major objective of this proposal is to evaluate how human activities interact with each other in causing environmental change in lakes, streams and catchments. I will do this by utilizing an existing long-term database that includes climate, hydrologic, chemical and physical data measured over the past 35 years for a set of 8 lakes, 24 streams and their catchments that are located in the southern part of Canada's boreal ecozone. This environmental database is one of the most detailed and long-term records in the world. For some data types such as lake chemistry mass balances, it is the most complete dataset in existence. In addition, I will utilize shorter-term data measured over the past 3 years for several sub-catchments of the Lake Simcoe basin that are south of the boreal ecozone and that have very different chemistry. The stressors that are considered here are climate change, nutrients, acid deposition and trace metal contamination. I will use these data to test a number of hypotheses, for example, that climate factors that are controlling ecosystem acidification and recovery from acidification subsequently affect nutrient (phosphorus) levels and thus lake productivity. I will also investigate changes in dissolved organic matter cycles that may result in changes in greenhouse gas production and in trace metal availability. There will be a strong focus on developing models that will allow us to make quantitative predictions about the future state of ecosystems. I will use the available data to modify existing models of acidification to include nitrogen species and the transformations between inorganic and organic nitrogen; this refinement will allow much more accurate estimation of critical loads of acid to the Canadian environment.