Real options and risk hedging in a global supply chain

全球经济环境的最新发展，包括全球范围内减少贸易壁垒和区域和多国经济区，导致许多加拿大和国际公司开始在其他国家（如印度、中国和墨西哥）发展业务。在寻求国外新机会的过程中，他们也面临着许多风险，包括汇率的不确定性、需求的不确定性、产品生命周期的缩短、产品价格的变化等。例如，外汇汇率的波动会造成不稳定的现金流，甚至导致破产。拟议的研究将采用运筹学和金融工程工具来开发一种全球供应链设计方法，这种方法可以成功地用于不同国家的制造设施、供应商和市场，同时对冲来自不确定需求、随机产品生命周期、不确定汇率和可变产品价格的风险。风险可以通过两种方式对冲：改变经营策略；以及交易金融工具，这样公司就可以利用其资源来降低成本和提高收入。本研究将提供有效的风险对冲工具和理论，以及针对全球风险的财务和运营对冲策略的综合方法软件。该分析将为从业者提供指导方针，以建立有效的全球供应链战略，使其利润最大化，并最终为其新的风险提供一系列新的机会和对冲策略。随着全球供应链的重要性日益增加，这项研究将对成功的加拿大企业发挥关键作用，增加他们的利润，同时降低他们的下行风险。

Recent developments in the global economic environment, including worldwide reductions of trade barriers and regional and multi-country economic zones, have led many Canadian and international companies to start developing their businesses in other countries (such as India, China, and Mexico). In seeking new opportunities abroad, they also face many risks, including uncertain exchange rates, uncertain demands, shorter product life cycles, and variable product prices. For example, fluctuation in foreign exchange rates can create unstable cash flows, and even bankruptcy. The proposed research will employ operations research and financial engineering tools to develop an approach to a global supply chain design that can be used successfully by manufacturing facilities, suppliers, and markets in different countries, while at the same time hedging risks from uncertain demands, stochastic product life cycles, uncertain exchange rates, and variable product prices. Risks can be hedged in two ways: changing operational strategies; and trading financial instruments, so that the company can leverage its resources to yield lower costs and higher revenues. This research will provide effective risk hedging tools and theories, and software for an integrated approach to financial and operational hedging strategies against global risks. The analysis will provide guidelines for practitioners to establish effective global supply chain strategies that will maximize their profits, and will ultimately provide a series of new opportunities and hedging strategies for their new risks. With the increasing importance of the global supply chain, this study will play a critical role for successful Canadian businesses, increasing their profit gain and while reducing their downside risk.