Modeling price behavior in competitive electricity markets and the applications to energy systems management

在过去的十年中，许多国家，包括加拿大的安大略省和阿尔伯塔省，已经从传统的电力系统运行环境中转移出来，并放松了对电力行业的管制。与传统的电力系统不同，电力市场具有价格不确定性的特点。在这些市场中，对于一天中的每个特定间隔（例如，每隔5分钟一次），并根据供应情况及市场需求而定。然而，未来的电力市场价格是影响各种市场主体优化其运营的大多数战略决策的关键因素。这类决策的例子包括运行调度、投资规划和公共能源政策的制定。因此，这种决策的最优性与用于预测未来电力市场价格的价格模型的效率密切相关。

During the past decade, many countries, including the provinces of Ontario and Alberta in Canada, have moved from the traditional power systems operation environment and have deregulated their power industry. Unlike the traditional power systems, deregulated electricity markets are featured with uncertain future prices. In these markets, electricity prices are competitively determined, on spot, for each specific interval during a day (e.g., for each 5-minute interval) based on the available supply and market demand. Future electricity market prices, however, are the key factors affecting most of the strategic decisions made by various market entities to optimize their operation. Examples of such decisions are operation scheduling, investment planning, and the setting up of public energy polices. Thus, optimality of such decisions is highly tied to the efficiency of price models employed to forecast future electricity market prices.