Modeling price behavior in competitive electricity markets and the applications to energy systems management

在过去十年中，包括加拿大安大略省和阿尔伯塔省在内的许多国家已经摆脱了传统的电力系统运行环境，并放松了对其电力工业的管制。与传统的电力系统不同，放松管制的电力市场具有未来价格不确定的特点。在这些市场中，电价是根据可用的供应和市场需求，在一天中的每个特定时段（例如，每5分钟的时段）以竞争性方式当场确定的。然而，未来电力市场价格是影响各市场主体为优化运营而做出的大多数战略决策的关键因素。此类决策的例子包括运营调度、投资计划和公共能源政策的制定。因此，这些决策的最优性与用于预测未来电力市场价格的价格模型的效率高度相关。

During the past decade, many countries, including the provinces of Ontario and Alberta in Canada, have moved from the traditional power systems operation environment and have deregulated their power industry. Unlike the traditional power systems, deregulated electricity markets are featured with uncertain future prices. In these markets, electricity prices are competitively determined, on spot, for each specific interval during a day (e.g., for each 5-minute interval) based on the available supply and market demand. Future electricity market prices, however, are the key factors affecting most of the strategic decisions made by various market entities to optimize their operation. Examples of such decisions are operation scheduling, investment planning, and the setting up of public energy polices. Thus, optimality of such decisions is highly tied to the efficiency of price models employed to forecast future electricity market prices.