The spatiotemporal dynamics of plant invasions.

我的研究计划的长期目标是了解为什么一些外来植物物种比其他物种更成功地在它们的引进范围内建立了大量的种群。该计划的短期目标是(1)使用网络上可用的数据库构建外来植物成功的简单预测模型，(2)确定为什么道路网络对外来植物物种的传播如此重要，而不是在它们的本土范围内，以及(3)通过对欧亚水翼的详细研究来继续我对水生植物入侵者动态的研究。将检验几个假设：(1)原生范围大的物种可能成为入侵者；(2)欧美道路系统之间存在一些根本差异，可以解释入侵者的成功；(3)水翼鱼的入侵更多地与垂钓者的运动有关，而不是与环境特征有关。为了彻底测试本地范围和外来植物成功之间的联系，我建议使用几个在线可用的数据库来重建物种的空间分布，并计算从欧洲引进的北美物种的本地范围和外来范围之间的统计相关性(反之亦然)。对于研究计划的第二部分，我建议测试几个已经开发的模型，这些模型已经被开发来预测道路上是否存在入侵植物，无论是在引入的物种范围内还是在本地范围内。水翼入侵的动力学将在加蒂诺河谷进行研究，那里的入侵者正在贫营养化的湖泊中迅速扩张。分子技术将被用来识别基因类型并量化湖泊内和湖泊之间的遗传多样性。垂钓者的行为(他们在哪里和何时钓鱼)也将得到彻底调查。将开发预测加蒂诺河流域湖泊中是否存在水飞蓟和丰度的模型，将基因类型、水质特征、景观指标和垂钓者数据整合在一起。这项研究计划将对生物入侵科学的发展产生重大影响，无论是在加拿大还是国外，在更广泛的背景下，植物生物地理学。

The long-term objective of my research program is to understand why some exotic plant species are more successful than others for establishing large populations in their introduced range. The short-term objectives of the program are to (1) construct simple predictive models of the success of exotic plants using databases available on the web, (2) determine why road networks are so important for the spread of plant species in their exotic range but not in their native range, and (3) pursue my research on the dynamics of aquatic plant invaders through a detailed study on Eurasian watermilfoil. Several hypotheses will be tested: (1) species with a large native range are likely to become invasive, (2) there are some fundamental differences between European and American road systems that explain the success of invaders, and (3) the invasion of watermilfoil is more associated to the movements of anglers than to environmental characteristics. For a thorough test of the link between the extent of the native range and the success of exotic plants, I propose to reconstruct the spatial distribution of species using several databases available online, and to calculate statistical correlations between the extent of the native range and that of the exotic range for species introduced in North America from Europe (and vice-versa). For the second part of the research program, I propose to test several models that have been developed to predict the presence of invasive plants along roads, both in the introduced and native ranges of the species. The dynamics of the watermilfoil invasion will be studied in the Gatineau River valley where the invader is rapidly expanding in oligotrophic lakes. Molecular techniques will be used to identify genotypes and to quantify genetic diversity, within and among lakes. The behaviour of anglers (where and when do they fish) will also be thoroughly investigated. Models predicting the presence and abundance of watermilfoil in lakes of the Gatineau River valley, integrating genotypes, water quality characteristics, landscape metrics and data on anglers will be developed. This research program will have a significant impact on the development of the science of biological invasions, both in Canada and abroad and, in a broader context, of plant biogeography.