The spatiotemporal dynamics of plant invasions

我的研究计划的长期目标是了解为什么一些外来植物物种比其他物种更成功地在其引入的范围内建立种群。短期目标是：（1）构建外来植物成功的简单预测模型，（2）确定为什么路边作为入侵植物物种的栖息地在其本地/外来范围的某些部分如此重要，而不是在其他地方，（3）通过详细研究正在经历重大环境变化的大型湖泊的植物种群，继续我对水生入侵者动态的研究。我假设，具有较大的原生范围的物种很可能成为入侵，特别是如果考虑到停留时间，气候耐受性和物种的系统发育结构的检查池。对于本地范围（欧亚大陆）和成功的引进植物（北美）之间的联系进行彻底的测试，我建议使用植物地图集和植物标本作为数据源。我还假设，在魁北克省的几个入侵物种的成功在很大程度上是由一个资源（路边更宽，更受干扰），这是在欧洲较少可用的解释。换句话说，问题不是本土/外来的二分法;问题更恰当地被置于是否有机会获得一种关键资源（生境）的背景下。预测魁北克沿着道路上存在四种入侵物种的模型将在法国进行测试，在法国路边也发现了相同的物种。最后，我打算对圣皮埃尔湖最近和正在进行的植物入侵进行时空研究。由于气候变暖，该地点面临植物入侵的风险：干旱条件下出现的泥滩特别容易入侵。然而，哪些外来物种或本地物种已经或将利用低水位仍有待确定。我假设，植物入侵泥滩有一套特殊的特征，使他们能够利用不断变化的环境，这些特征是独立的本地/外来的状态。将对圣皮埃尔湖的植物种群进行调查，并对植物性状进行详细分析，以确定入侵泥滩的物种与其他物种的特征。

The long-term objective of my research program is to understand why some exotic plant species are more successful than others in establishing populations in their introduced range. The short-term objectives are to (1) construct simple predictive models of the success of exotic plants, (2) determine why roadsides are so important as habitats for invasive plant species in some parts of their native/exotic range but not in others, and (3) pursue my research on the dynamics of aquatic invaders through a detailed study of plant populations of a large lake that is undergoing major environmental change. I hypothesize that species with a large native range are likely to become invasive, especially if residence time, climate tolerance and the phylogenetic structure of the pool of species examined are taken into account. For a thorough test of the link between the extent of the native range (Eurasia) and the success of introduced plants (North America), I propose to use plant atlases and herbaria as data sources. I also hypothesize that the success of several invasive species in Québec is in large part explained by a resource (roadsides wider and more disturbed) that is less available in Europe. In other words, the question is not the native/exotic dichotomy; the question is more aptly contextualized as whether there is access to a critical resource (habitat). Models predicting the presence of four invasive species along Québec roads will be tested in France where the same species are also found on roadsides. Finally, I intend to conduct a spatiotemporal study of recent and ongoing plant invasions of Lake St. Pierre. This site is at risk for plant invasions due to climate warming: the emergent mudflats resulting from drought conditions are especially invasion prone. However, which exotic or native species have or will take advantage of the low water levels remains to be determined. I hypothesize that plants invading mudflats have a particular suite of traits enabling them to exploit the changing environment, such traits being independent of the native/exotic status. Surveys of plant populations of Lake St. Pierre and detailed analyses of plant traits will be conducted to identify traits discriminating species having invaded mudflats from others.