Advancing spatial analysis methodologies using a bayesian approach: combining individual and aggregated data in small area studies

拟议的研究是重要的，使用空间数据的所有学科，因为它将开发新的和改进的方法来分析空间数据，从而有效地利用空间数据，已收集的常规跨学科。 随着越来越多的地理参考数据变得可用，应用空间分析的研究在许多学科中显着增加。 传统的空间分析采用的是频率统计方法，无法拟合复杂的空间模型。 近年来，空间分析的一个重要发展是使用贝叶斯统计方法来分析空间数据，称为贝叶斯空间分析（BSA）。 研究揭示了这种新方法在拟合更复杂的空间模型以解决传统空间分析问题（包括缺失数据、数据不确定性、测量误差、空间依赖性和数据集成）方面的能力。 与英国和美国相比，BSA在加拿大很少使用。 我们提出的研究的长期目标是推进BSA的方法，以提高我们的能力，可靠地分析地理数据，提供BSA的培训，学生，促进BSA的应用，提高加拿大地理研究的整体水平。 我们的短期目标是开发BSA方法，使地理参考的个人和汇总数据在小区域研究中的整合，以提高地理研究的可靠性。 我们将专注于开发公共卫生和犯罪领域的研究方法，这些领域目前最需要改进空间方法，以了解疾病/犯罪结果的地理差异。 我们的研究结果将与安大略两个地区的公共卫生和警察分享，他们对我们的研究表示兴趣并同意提供数据。 然而，BSA的方法将不仅适用于公共卫生和犯罪，而且在环境科学和其他应用科学研究。

The proposed research is important to all disciplines that use spatial data because it will develop new and improved methodologies for analyzing spatial data, and thus make effective use of spatial data that have been collected routinely across disciplines. Research that applies spatial analysis has increased remarkably in many disciplines as more geographically-referenced data are becoming available. Traditional spatial analysis adopts a frequentist statistical approach, which has the limitation of inability to fit complex spatial models. One important development of spatial analysis in recent years is to use a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze spatial data, referred to a Bayesian Spatial Analysis (BSA). Research has shed lights on the capability of this new approach in fitting more complex spatial models to tackle traditional problems of spatial analysis including missing data, data uncertainty, measurement errors, spatial dependence, and data integration. Compared to the UK and US, BSA is rarely used in Canada. The long term goal of our proposed research is to advance methodologies of BSA to improve our ability to analyze geographic data reliably, provide BSA training to students, promote the applications of BSA, and improve the overall standard of geographic research in Canada. Our short term goal is to develop BSA methodologies that would enable the integration of geographically-referenced individual and aggregated data in small-area research to improve the reliability of geographic studies. We will focus on developing methods for research in the fields of public health and crime, which are currently most in need of improved spatial methodologies for understanding geographic variation of disease/crime outcomes. Our research findings will be shared with two regions of public health and police in Ontario who have expressed interests in and agreed to provide data for our research. However, the BSA methodologies developed will be applicable not only in public health and crime, but also in environmental science and other applied science research.