Multireservoir system optimization using ensemble forecasts

未来的水资源管理将从建设新的基础设施转向更好地管理现有的基础设施。在河流流域，淡水供应是有限的，像水坝这样的新基础设施比过去要昂贵得多。该项目涉及使用集合流量预测来改善多个水库的性能。水库运行问题要求对当前用水和未来用水之间的权衡进行评价。自然水流的可变性使这一决策问题复杂化，因为必须在未来供给量已知之前找到权衡。如果有政策和计算工具可以利用，频繁更新的集合流量预测的可用性将有可能提高多个水库系统的操作效率。本项目旨在(1)通过将集合流量预测纳入水库优化模型来开发这样一个计算工具，以及(2)评估这些预测的经济价值。为了实现这一目标，该项目将需要培养高素质的人才（1名博士和3名硕士学生），并将在魁北克的Gatineau河流域进行。

Future water management will shift from building new infrastructure to better managing existing ones. In a river basin, fresh water supplies are physically limited, and new infrastructure like dams are much more expensive than they have been in the past. This project is concerned with the use of ensemble streamflow forecasts to improve the performance of multiple reservoirs. The reservoir operation problem requires the evaluation of tradeoffs among immediate and future uses of water. The variability of natural streamflow complicates this decision-making problem since the tradeoff must be found before the volume of future supply becomes known. The availability of frequently-updated ensemble streamflow forecasts offers the potential to improve the operational effectiveness of multiple reservoir systems if there are policies and computational tools available to exploit them. This project aims at (1) developing such a computational tool by incorporating ensemble streamflow forecasts into a reservoir optimization model, and (2) assessing the economic value of these forecasts. To achieve this, the project will require the training of highly qualified personnel (1 PhD and 3 MSc students), and will be carried out in the Gatineau River basin in Quebec.