Metacognition, the feeling of rightness, and intuitive versus analytic thinking

直觉在我们的决策过程中扮演着重要的角色。从是否买一双鞋等相对琐碎的判断，到是否买一栋特定的房子、对同事的信任程度、是否接种流感疫苗等更重要的决定，往往都是基于直觉的“直觉”。此外，有证据表明，这种直觉在医疗诊断、消防和投资银行等广泛领域的专家决策中发挥着作用。然而，许多这样的决策将受益于一种更深思熟虑的方法，在这种方法中，决策者花时间评估决策的后果、潜在的替代方案或利弊。该研究的第一个目标是调查这些直觉，特别是决定是采用直觉方法还是采用分析方法的条件。这项研究建立在一个理论模型的基础上，在这个模型中，直觉有两个维度：决定的内容（例如，我要买那些鞋）和伴随该决定的正确感觉。这种正义感的来源在很大程度上是隐含的：也就是说，决策者不一定知道为什么会觉得某事是对的或错的。拟议的研究调查了在各种推理情况下决定这种正确感强度的因素。第二个目标是调查这种正确的感觉与更深思熟虑的分析的可能性和程度之间的关系。具体来说，假设正确的感觉在不同的环境中是不同的，这种感觉的强度决定了是否有更多的深思熟虑的过程参与。最后，拟议的研究将调查这种审议的性质和改进决策方面的结果。例如，我们有理由怀疑，在解决问题的情况下，我们观察到的许多深思熟虑的想法是致力于合理化或证明最初的决定，而不是考虑该决定的替代方案。

Intuitions play a large role in our decision-making processes. Judgments ranging from relatively trivial, such as whether to buy a pair of shoes, to more consequential decisions such as whether to buy a particular house, how much one trusts a colleague, or whether to take a flu shot are often based on intuitive "gut feelings". Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest that such intuitions play a role in expert decisions in wide ranging domains such as medical diagnoses, fire fighting, and investment banking. However, many such decisions would benefit from a more reflective approach in which the decision-maker takes the time to evaluate the consequences, potential alternatives, or pro's and con's of the decision. The first goal of the proposed research is to investigate those intuitions and in particular, the conditions that determine whether an intuitive or an analytic approach is taken. The research builds on a theoretical model in which intuitions have two dimensions: The content of the decision (e.g., I am going to buy those shoes) and a feeling of rightness that accompanies that decision. The origin of this feeling of rightness are largely implicit: That is, something will feel right or wrong without the decision-maker necessarily knowing why. The proposed research investigates the factors that determine the strength of this feeling of rightness in a variety of reasoning situations. A second goal is to investigate the relationship between this feeling of rightness and the probability and degree of more deliberate analysis. Specifically, it is hypothesized that the feeling of rightness varies from one context to another and that the strength of this feeling determines whether more deliberate processes are engaged. Finally, the proposed research will investigate the nature of this deliberation and the outcome in terms of improved decision-making. For example, we have reason to suspect that much of the deliberate thought we observe in problem-solving situations is dedicated to rationalizing or justifying an initial decision, rather than considering alternatives to that decision.