Metacognition, the feeling of rightness, and intuitive versus analytic thinking

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Intuitions play a large role in our decision-making processes. Judgments ranging from relatively trivial, such as whether to buy a pair of shoes, to more consequential decisions such as whether to buy a particular house, how much one trusts a colleague, or whether to take a flu shot are often based on intuitive "gut feelings". Furthermore, there is evidence to suggest that such intuitions play a role in expert decisions in wide ranging domains such as medical diagnoses, fire fighting, and investment banking. However, many such decisions would benefit from a more reflective approach in which the decision-maker takes the time to evaluate the consequences, potential alternatives, or pro's and con's of the decision. The first goal of the proposed research is to investigate those intuitions and in particular, the conditions that determine whether an intuitive or an analytic approach is taken. The research builds on a theoretical model in which intuitions have two dimensions: The content of the decision (e.g., I am going to buy those shoes) and a feeling of rightness that accompanies that decision. The origin of this feeling of rightness are largely implicit: That is, something will feel right or wrong without the decision-maker necessarily knowing why. The proposed research investigates the factors that determine the strength of this feeling of rightness in a variety of reasoning situations. A second goal is to investigate the relationship between this feeling of rightness and the probability and degree of more deliberate analysis. Specifically, it is hypothesized that the feeling of rightness varies from one context to another and that the strength of this feeling determines whether more deliberate processes are engaged. Finally, the proposed research will investigate the nature of this deliberation and the outcome in terms of improved decision-making. For example, we have reason to suspect that much of the deliberate thought we observe in problem-solving situations is dedicated to rationalizing or justifying an initial decision, rather than considering alternatives to that decision.