Toward risk-informed infrastructure engineering: development of risk-informed in-service inspection methodology

风险信息基础设施工程是一门新兴的工程学科，试图为“摇摇欲坠的基础设施”提供一个整体的和生命周期的解决方案。拟议的研究计划旨在开发一个先进的风险知情的在役检查（RI-ISI）方法的核电厂（NPP），一个关键的物理基础设施系统，安全是如此重要的一个问题。先进的RI-ISI方法将概率风险分析的风险洞察与服务经验、运行条件和其他确定性信息相结合，以优化检查决策。建议的研究将集中在以下三个关键和相互依存的问题：随机退化建模，寿命预测和可靠性分析，检查和维护优化老化管理的核电厂部件。随机退化模型为时变可靠性分析和寿命预测提供了可靠的退化模型，进而指导最佳检测位置和维修策略的选择。同时，设计良好的检测方案将为退化建模提供高质量的退化数据。利用随机过程理论和现代统计方法，本文的研究将为核电站的RI-ISI计划提供坚实的理论基础。该研究的新奇在于，它提供了一个彻底的处理与退化相关的所有不确定性，并将其集成到可靠性分析和检查决策。拟议的RI-ISI方法将使加拿大公用事业开发更有效和经济的ISI计划，提高核电厂的可靠性和运行安全。主要的研究结果也可以很容易地转移到其他基础设施系统的生命周期管理，如道路，铁路，桥梁，公共交通，水和废水系统。

Risk-informed infrastructure engineering is a newly emerging engineering discipline that attempts to provide a holistic and life-cycle solution to the "crumbling infrastructure". The proposed research program aims at developing an advanced risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) methodology for a nuclear power plant (NPP), a key physical infrastructure system that safety is so important an issue. The advanced RI-ISI methodology integrates risk insights from probabilistic risk analysis with service experience, operating conditions, and other deterministic information to optimize inspection decisions. The proposed research will focus on the following three key and interdependent issues: stochastic degradation modeling, life prediction and reliability analysis, and inspection and maintenance optimization for aging management of NPP components. The stochastic degradation modeling provides reliable degradation model for time-dependent reliability analysis and life prediction, which in turn guides the selection of optimal inspection locations and maintenance strategy. Meanwhile, the well-designed inspection program will provide high-quality degradation data for the degradation modeling. Using stochastic process theory and modern statistical methods, the proposed research will provide a solid theoretical basis for RI-ISI programs of NPP. The novelty of the research is that it provides a thorough treatment of all uncertainties associated with the degradation and integrates it into the reliability analysis and the inspection decision-making. The proposed RI-ISI methodology will enable Canadian utilities to develop more efficient and economical ISI programs that improve the reliability and operational safety of the nuclear power plants. The major findings can also readily be transferred to life-cycle management of other infrastructure systems such as roads, rails, bridges, public transits, and water and wastewater systems.