Forecasting marine ecosystem resilience: variation in species interactions and food web dynamics in a changing world

生态学的最新概念进展强调迫切需要了解生物和非生物因素如何在多个空间和时间尺度上塑造物种相互作用的强度和结果。与此同时，生态学家再也不能将他们的工作与人类活动变化的日益增长的影响隔离开来。在海洋系统中，这一点非常明显，在那里，捕食者的利用正在从根本上重组食物网，大气中二氧化碳的加速增加正在深刻地改变海洋化学。通过了解驱动食物网动态变化的因素，现代社区生态学将准备走向预测框架，以预测在何处，何时以及如何多种因素，人为和自然，生物和非生物，相互作用，以结构生态社区。我的研究计划将针对三个短期目标。我和我的学生将：1）评估和预测捕食者耗竭对岩礁食物网的影响，2）确定食物网改变和替代状态对耗竭种群恢复的影响，3）量化海洋酸化对物种相互作用和沿海生产力的影响。该研究项目的优势在于综合利用经验性实地实验、基于实验室的调查、遥感、同位素分析和最先进的定量建模来预测未来的变化。至关重要的是，该研究计划将为本科生和研究生提供尖端保护科学的宝贵培训，为加拿大提供知识和创新能力，以告知弹性海洋生态系统的可持续性，并预测气候变化对沿海海洋的影响。该研究计划将同时推进食物网动态，社区稳定性和替代状态的生态理论，并设计支持弹性和生产性海洋生态系统的保护解决方案。

Recent conceptual advances in ecology highlight the pressing need to understand how biotic and abiotic factors shape the strength and outcome of species interactions over multiple spatial and temporal scales. At the same time, ecologists can no longer isolate their work from the growing influences of anthropogenic change. This is abundantly clear in marine systems where the exploitation of predators is fundamentally restructuring food webs and the accelerating rate of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is profoundly modifying ocean chemistry. By understanding the factors that drive variation in food web dynamics, modern community ecology will be poised to move towards a predictive framework to forecast where, when and how multiple factors, anthropogenic and natural, biotic and abiotic, interact to structure ecological communities. My research program will target three short-term goals. My students and I will: 1) assess and forecast the effects of predator depletion on rocky reef food webs, 2) determine the effects of food web alteration and alternative states on the recovery of depleted populations, and 3) quantify the effects of ocean acidification on species interactions and coastal productivity. The strength of this research program lies in its integrated use of empirical field experiments, lab-based inquires, remote sensing, isotopic analyses, and state-of-the-art quantitative modelling to forecast future change. Critically, this research program will provide valuable training for undergraduate and graduate students in cutting-edge conservation science, providing Canada with the intellectual and innovative capacity to inform the sustainability of resilient marine ecosystems and anticipate climate change impacts on coastal oceans. This research program will simultaneously advance ecological theory in food web dynamics, community stability, and alternative states, and devise conservation solutions that support both resilient and productive marine ecosystems.