Vulnerability to global change in the arctic-breeding shorebirds

自然选择导致生物体与其环境相匹配。在生态时代，这种匹配可以限制对环境变化的适应，但可以通过行为可塑性来放松。由于气候变暖，北极滨鸟在生态和行为上具有多样性，其繁殖环境正在发生变化。这项研究计划的目的是记录北极繁殖的滨鸟对气候变化的生物后果的脆弱性，包括栖息地的改变以及猎物、捕食者和竞争对手群落的变化，这些物种在生态、行为和栖息地特异性方面都有所不同。本研究采用了四种方法：1)确定了曼尼托巴省邱奇地区四种滨鸟（Dunlin, Calidris alpina, Whimbrel, Numenius phaeopus，半平斑鸻，Charadrius semipalmatus， red -颈Phalaropes， Phalaropus lobatus）的繁殖栖息地偏好、地点保真度和适合度。(2)我们将记录雏鸟生长速率随繁殖时间的变化，以评估气候变暖导致雏鸟生长与昆虫产量峰值是否匹配或不匹配。(3)研究温带繁殖的亚北极扩张物种杀鹿（C. vociferus）与亚北极繁殖物种半平斑鸻之间的相互作用。预计亚北极育种者在平均气温年份将胜过温带育种者，而在高于平均气温年份则相反。(4)我们将在两个不同地点（如古巴和美国乔治亚州）研究三种不同保护程度的滨鸟，这些地点在冬季的风暴干扰频率不同。我们将研究潮汐高度对觅食偏好和成功的影响。这项工作是新颖而重要的，因为它的结果将使人们能够确定在北极繁殖的滨鸟物种和栖息地面临最大风险的一般原则，并提供证据证明行为灵活性是否赋予了对快速变化的环境影响的弹性。

Natural selection results in a match between organisms and their environments. In ecological time, this match can constrain adaptation to environmental change but can be relaxed through behavioural plasticity. Arctic shorebirds are diverse in ecology and behaviour and their breeding environments are changing due to climate warming. The objectives of this research program are to document the vulnerability of arctic-breeding shorebirds to biological consequences of a changing climate, including habitat alterations and changes in communities of prey, predators and competitors using a range of species that vary in ecology, behaviour and habitat specificity. We describe four approaches for the five-year research program: (1) We will determine breeding habitat preferences, site fidelity, and fitness of four species of shorebirds at Churchill, Manitoba (Dunlin, Calidris alpina, Whimbrel, Numenius phaeopus; Semipalmated Plover, Charadrius semipalmatus, and Red-necked Phalaropes, Phalaropus lobatus). (2) We will document variation in growth rates of the young as a function of timing of breeding to assess whether chick growth and peak insect productivity are matched or mismatched as a result of climate warming. (3) We will study the interaction between the temperate-zone breeding Killdeer (C. vociferus), a species expanding into the sub-Arctic and the Semipalmated Plover, a sub-arctic breeding species. The sub-arctic breeder is predicted to outcompete the temperate breeder in years with average temperatures, while the reverse is predicted in years with above average temperatures. (4) We will study three shorebird species with contrasting levels of conservation concern at two locations on wintering grounds that vary in the frequency of storm disturbance (e.g., Cuba and Georgia, USA). We will examine the impacts of tidal height on foraging preferences and success. The work is novel and significant in that results will allow identification of general principles for which arctic-breeding shorebird species and habitats are most at risk, and provide evidence of whether behavioural flexibility confers resilience to impacts of a rapidly changing environment.