Forecasting population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change

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Rapid global change continues to present ecologists and conservation biologists with a fundamental challenge. Species at the focus of conservation efforts exist within ecosystems defined by environmental conditions that deviate substantially in both mean and variance from conditions a century ago. At the same time our ability to predict the trajectory of species responses to anthropogenic change remains limited by the discontinuity between the small scales at which mechanistic processes are primarily understood and the broad spatial and temporal scales relevant to population dynamics, species status, and ecosystem processes. My research program is focused at the intersection of these theoretical and applied challenges. I draw on investigations across scales and levels of biological organization to improve predictions of when and where different environmental stressors will drive shifts in species persistence, population dynamics, and patterns of biodiversity. To this end, my proposal addresses a fundamental question of the causes and consequences of global change at scales spanning the dynamics of individual populations, to range-wide changes in species distributions and the resilience of ecosystems. I propose to develop and advance an integrative framework to improve forecasts of population, species, and ecosystem vulnerability to global change in support of more effective conservation actions. To this end, my current proposal addresses two linked short-term objectives. I will evaluate retrospective amphibian declines through the lens of life history theory, biogeography, and phylogenetics, and I will tease apart the inherent scale-dependency of anthropogenic climate change impacts using montane amphibians as test case. In addition to advancing these fundamental questions, this research program will also importantly provide valuable training for graduate and undergraduate students, and technicians in field ecology and cutting-edge quantitative methods, and contribute to Canada's intellectual capacity to meet both domestic and international commitments to preserving biodiversity. This research program will advance our mechanistic and theoretical understanding of species and population responses to global change, as well as provide direct support for conservation planning and natural resource management decisions in Canada’s freshwater ecosystems and beyond.