"DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS, MODELS AND KNOWLEDGE FOR ADVANCING THE SCIENCE OF SAFETY ESTIMATION"

发展安全评估科学的方法、模型和知识 现代道路工程实践需要应用模型、方法和知识，以明确考虑设计新设施或改进现有设施的决策的安全后果。在促进这些应用方面，过去十年在推进知识前沿方面取得了重大进展。然而，目前的方法和模型已经达到了极限，而重要的知识仍然难以捉摸。2008年底，一个名为“公路碰撞数据建模的未来方向”的研讨会汇集了来自世界各地的优秀安全研究人员，目的是探索公路碰撞数据建模的未来发展方向，并制定一个高级安全研究计划，为解释碰撞原因提供理论基础。研讨会上建议的研究计划的目标是促进以科学为基础的安全评价的进一步发展，并促进更稳定，可靠和可移植的公路安全预测模型的发展。这个研究项目的目标与这些目标非常一致。为了实现这些互补目标，本研究计划的重点将是“开发新方法，并改进现有方法，以量化设施的安全性，或估计设施条件变化与设施安全变化之间的关系”。拟议的研究还将与加拿大运输和公路安全部长理事会最近提出的加拿大“2015年道路安全战略”有关。具体而言，它涉及改进道路安全信息以支持研究和评价的核心目标。

DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS, MODELS AND KNOWLEDGE FOR ADVANCING THE SCIENCE OF SAFETY ESTIMATION Modern road engineering practice requires the application of models, methods and knowledge for explicitly considering the safety consequences of decisions in designing a new facility or improving an existing one. In facilitating these applications, significant progress has been made in advancing the knowledge frontier over the past decade. However, current methods and models have reached their limits, while important knowledge remains elusive. In recognition of this void, in late 2008, a workshop titled "Future Directions in Highway Crash Data Modeling" brought together selected, prominent safety researchers from around the world with the objective of exploring promising future directions in highway crash data modeling and to develop a program of advanced safety research that provides a theoretic foundation for explaining crash causation. Goals of the research program recommended at the workshop are to promote the further development of science-based safety evaluation and to facilitate the development of more stable, reliable, and transferrable highway safety predictive models. The goals of this research program are very much in line with those goals. In keeping with these complementary goals, the focus of this research program will be on "developing new methods, and the refinement of existing methods for either quantifying the safety of a facility, or estimating the relationship between a change in facility condition and a change in facility safety". The proposed research will also be relevant to Canada's "Road Safety Strategy 2015" recently set forth by the Canadian Council of Ministers for Transportation and Highway Safety. Specifically, it relates to the core objective to improving road safety information in support of research and evaluation.