Predicting annual allowable cut in a changing world // Prédire la possibilité forestière dans un contexte de changements globaux

林业是加拿大净贸易的五大贡献者之一，林业是许多农村和偏远社区的重要雇主。良好的森林管理始于可持续的森林采伐配额，以维持我们目前的经济业绩，而不损害子孙后代的经济和社会利益。在加拿大，各省赠款林业公司的“年度允许采伐量”是根据森林生长模拟模型的预测确定的。 这些模型使用过去的森林测量数据进行校准。换句话说，未来收益率是根据历史收益率估计的。拟议的研究项目是基于全球环境变化（GEC）正在以越来越高的速度发生的原则，使其脆弱的预测未来AAC的基础上，过去的森林性能。结合生态学家，地球化学家，树木生理学家和森林工程师的专业知识，我们的项目将研究不同的GEC（例如大气CO2，高温，干旱，早期融雪，氮沉积）将如何影响土壤肥力和树木的生长。我们将集中在黑云杉，因为这是魁北克最重要的经济物种。我们将使用一系列实验，跨越几个分辨率的顺序，从分子到景观水平，以了解在不断变化的世界中驱动森林生长的机制。由于支持组织的现金捐助，我们的学生将与来自企业和政府的合作伙伴进行6次实习。更具体地说，学生将在WSP Canada实习，WSP Canada是一家工程公司，正在为Woodstock建模平台开发林业应用程序。其他学生将同时在首席林长办公室实习，以实施我们的研究成果内计算魁北克的AAC，使用伍德斯托克。我们的项目将在三个方面使加拿大受益：（1）提高我们对GEC对森林资源影响的基本知识，（2）提高森林清查和规划的准确性和精确性，（3）培训21名学生，使其掌握林业部门研发和可持续管理所需的基本技能。

Forestry is among the top five contributors to Canada's net trade, and the forest industry is an important employer in many rural and remote communities. Good forest stewardship begins with sustainable forest harvesting quotas that maintain our current economic performance without compromising economic and social benefits to future generations. In Canada, the "Annual Allowable Cut" (AAC) that each province grants to forest companies is based on predictions from forest growth simulation models. These models are calibrated using forest mensuration data from the past. In other words, future yields are estimated from historical yields. The proposed research project is predicated on the principle that global environmental changes (GEC) are occurring at an increasingly higher rate, making it tenuous to predict future AAC based on past forest performance. Combining the expertise of ecologists, biogeochemists, tree physiologists and forest engineers, our project will study how different GECs (e.g. atmospheric CO2, higher temperature, drought, early snowmelt, N deposition) will affect soil fertility and the growth of trees. We will concentrate on black spruce, as this is the most economically important species in Québec. We will use a series of experiments that span several orders of resolution, from molecular to landscape level, in order to understand the mechanisms driving forest growth in a changing world. Thanks to cash contributions from supporting organizations, our students will perform 6 internships with partners from business and government. More specifically, students will perform internships with WSP Canada, an engineering firm that is developing forestry applications for the Woodstock modeling platform. Other students will concomitantly perform internships at the Chief Forester's office, in order to implement our research findings within the calculation of Quebec's AAC, using Woodstock. Our project will benefit Canada in 3 ways: (1) Improve our fundamental knowledge of GEC effects on forest resources, (2) Improve the accuracy and precision of forest inventories and planning, and (3) Train 21 students with essential skills that are required for R&D and sustainable management in the forestry sector.