Risk assessment for linear assets with estimation and model-based uncertainty

资产是对组织具有潜在价值的任何东西；资产管理是 组织从其资产中实现价值。Riva Model是一家总部位于多伦多的软件公司，提供全方位的物理 资产管理解决方案，集成来自各种来源的数据，并提供数据驱动的资产管理决策支持工具。加州大学维修优化与可靠性工程中心(C-MORE) 多伦多是资产管理领域领先的行业-学术研究集团。 Riva寻求将C-More正在进行的研究成果付诸实施，具体地说，通过使更准确的 通过同时考虑估计的不确定性和可能的模型错误说明来估计剩余使用寿命。我们的 方法是将问题嵌入到贝叶斯框架中，该框架将模型错误描述添加到方程中。 C-More的方法是创新的，因为我们对问题的表述可以更容易地解释模型错误 而且计算速度比目前已知的技术更快。 Riva建模将在研究中发挥关键作用，将工作人员的时间用于实施我们的理论结果 将获得并通过其客户群将我们与真实的行业数据集连接起来。Riva还将为 C-More在项目开发阶段的计算需求。

An asset is anything that has potential value to an organization; asset management is the co-ordinated activity of an organization to realize value from its assets. Riva Modeling is a Toronto-based software company that offers holistic physical asset management solutions that integrate data from a variety of sources and provides data-driven asset management decision support tools. The Centre for Maintenance Optimization and Reliability Engineering (C-MORE) at the University of Toronto is the leading industry-academic research group in asset management. Riva seeks to operationalize ongoing research results being made at C-MORE, specifically by making more accurate remaining useful life estimates by accounting for both estimation uncertainty and possible model-misspecification. Our approach is to embed the problem in a Bayesian framework that adds model-misspecification to the equations. C-MORE's methodology is innovative in the way our formulation of the problem can account for model error that is easier and faster to calculate than currently known techniques. Riva Modeling will play a key role in the research by dedicating staff time to the implementation of the theoretical results we will obtain and by connecting us with real industry datasets through its customer base. Riva will also contribute to the computing needs of C-MORE during the development phase of the project.