Predicting likelihood to recommend and likelihood to churn based on cumulative experience of online services: modeling transitions in customer attitudes and behaviours

客户希望以具有竞争力的价格提供高质量和高带宽的服务。在实践中，在保证不断提高的质量水平和相关成本之间存在着工程上的权衡。累积的服务质量和最终的客户满意度之间的关系是什么，反映在态度和行为上，如净推广者得分(或推荐可能性，L2r)。我们将进行一系列实验和观察性研究，我们的目标是开发一系列模型，最终针对每一系列无线服务，根据一段时间内体验质量的模式预测关键态度得分和L2R。通过对照实验以及实地和纵向研究，我们将基于经历的挫折史和满足感，调查累积经验如何转化为对服务的态度。我们将开发预测累积体验在不同环境中的影响的模型，并将研究体验质量的变化如何导致态度的变化，最终导致决策，这些变化反映在L2r判断中(在某些情况下还会停止服务)。这项研究的一个重要部分将涉及对照实验，这些实验可以测试关于因果关系的假设。因此，我们的策略不仅是开发模型，还将在正式实验中测试它们的预测，并对实验结果进行方差分析，以确定影响L2r的因果因素。这项研究的结果还将包括监测和管理服务交付的指导方针，以提高满意度和忠诚度，并减少挫折和流失。

Customers want high quality, and high bandwidth services, at competitive pricing. In practice there are engineering tradeoffs between guaranteeing increasing levels of quality and the associated costs. What is the relationship between cumulative service quality and resulting customer satisfaction as reflected in attitudes and behaviors such as the net promoter score (or likelihood to recommend, L2R). We will carry out a series of experiments and observational studies where our goal will be to develop a family of models, ultimately for each family of wireless services, that predict key attitude scores and L2R based on patterns of quality of experience over time. Using controlled experiments and field and longitudinal studies we will investigate how cumulative experience translates into attitudes towards services based on the history of frustration and satisfaction experienced. We will develop models that predict the impact of cumulative experience in different contexts and will examine how changes in quality of experience lead to changes in attitudes, and finally decisions, that are reflected in L2R judgments (and discontinuation of service in some cases). An important part of the research will involve controlled experiments that can test hypotheses about causal relationships. Thus our strategy will be not only to develop models, but also to test their predictions in formal experiments, with analysis of variance carried out on the experimental results to identify causal factors that influence L2R. The outcomes of this research will also include guidelines for monitoring and managing service delivery so as to increase satisfaction and loyalty, and reduce frustration and churn on the other.