Year21: Investment decision support for commercial wind

风能在加拿大的能源供应组合中扮演着越来越重要的角色。截至2015年，全国已安装超过110亿瓦的铭牌发电。风能的轻碳和水足迹，再加上已证实的产能和较低的成本，表明了持续增长的强大潜力。在继续发展的同时，该行业也在走向成熟。许多运行中的涡轮机正在接近，或者已经超过了通常所说的20年寿命的一半。随着风电场的老化，业主面临的问题是，是投资维持这些资产，还是投资扩大运营，还是停止投资。作出这些决定的最佳政策是非常复杂的，因为它们不仅取决于不确定的未来监管和市场状况，而且还取决于资产目前的实际状况、替代技术、保险单和当地社会气候。所有发电资产都面临着类似的挑战，尤其是风能资产，因为该行业尚未经历整个生命周期。此外，老化条件对涡轮机位置和高度随机的加载环境非常敏感。这项拟议的研究由安大略省西部温莎大学和支持组织牵头，旨在开发一个投资决策支持系统，以引导所有者度过未来动态的运营环境。公共领域年份和利益相关者提供的历史数据将用于对主要风能资产的剩余使用寿命(RUL)进行估计。同时，这项研究将基于资产状况(根据RUL估计)、市场、监管和社会因素，提出一个包含当前和预测风险调整的风电场估值的模型。这个决策支持系统将分两个阶段开发。第一阶段将遵循一个简单但具有指导意义的、经风险调整的商业风电场运营贴现现金流投资估值模型，该模型预计将在20年后进行。第二阶段将建立在情景分析的基础上。它将考虑到管理层使用实物期权估值技术对新信息做出反应的灵活性，以评估投资放弃、延迟或扩张的最佳决策路径。

Wind energy is playing an increasingly significant role in Canada's energy supply mix. As of 2015, over 11 gigawatts of nameplate generation have been installed nationally. Wind energy's light carbon and water footprints, coupled with proven capacity and reduced costs suggest a strong potential for sustained growth. While development continues, the industry is maturing. Many operational turbines are approaching, or are beyond the halfway mark of their commonly cited 20 year lifespan. As wind farms age, owners face questions of whether to invest to maintain these assets, invest to expand operations, or discontinue investment. The optimal policies for making these decisions are very complex as they depend not only on uncertain future regulatory and market conditions but also on the present physical condition of the assets, the replacement technology, insurance policies and local social climates. All power generation assets face similar challenges, they are particularly steep for wind as the industry has not yet been through an entire life cycle. Further, the conditions of aging are very sensitive to turbine location and the highly stochastic loading environment. The proposed study, led by the Universities of Windsor, Western Ontario, and supporting organizations, aims to develop an investment decision support system to shepherd owners through the dynamic operating climate ahead. Years of public domain and stakeholder supplied historical data will be used to produce estimates of Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of major wind energy assets. In parallel, the study will advance an inclusive model of present day and forecasted risk-adjusted wind farm valuation based on condition of assets (fed from RUL estimates), market, regulatory, and social factors. This decision support system will be developed in two phases. Phase 1 will follow a simple yet instructive, risk-adjusted discounted cash flow Investment Valuation Model of commercial wind farm operation projected beyond year 20. Phase 2 will be built on scenario analysis. It will account for management's flexibility to react to new information using real options valuation techniques to evaluate optimal decision paths of investment abandonment, delay, or expansion.