Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystem in Transition (CPET)

不列颠哥伦比亚省东北部和邻近的西北地区南部是地球上变暖最快的地区之一，并且正在经历前所未有的工业扩张。内bc -西北西北边境地区的气候变暖和人为干扰导致了广泛的永久冻土融化和土地覆盖变化，破坏了水文循环以及依赖于它的生态系统和人类活动。该项目将调查边境地区永久冻土融化导致的水文和生态变化，开发和调动这些变化的知识，开发预测建模工具，并为我们在工业、政府和社区（包括原住民）的合作伙伴提供有关这些工具的互动培训。为了提高对永久冻土融化影响的理解和预测能力，我们提出了永久冻土生态系统转型联盟（CPET）。CPET的具体目标总结如下：1)绘制近60年来多年冻土、湿地和森林覆盖的空间变化分布图；2)针对不同的地面融湿条件，开展实地研究，提高对径流量和径流时间的认识；3)模拟控制径流的主要水通量和蓄水过程；4)通过野外调查和随后的区域尺度永久冻土模式的适应，提高我们在更大尺度上表征永久冻土影响的能力；5)在气候变暖和人为干扰的可能情景下，估算具有不连续永久冻土的北方和亚北极地区未来径流和地表水储存量。提高对永久冻土融化模式、速率、影响和反馈的认识和预测能力，将1)通过减少未来淡水供应的不确定性，改善水的规划、管理和安全，并使缓解战略能够更好地抵消负面影响，2)减少因融化对基础设施和财产造成的破坏而产生的建设和维护成本，并减少对环境的影响。

Northeastern British Columbia and the adjacent southern Northwest Territories are among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and are experiencing unprecedented industrial expansion. Climate warming and human disturbance in the NEBC-NWT border region has led to widespread permafrost thaw and landcover change that has disrupted the hydrological cycle and the ecosystems and human activities that depend on it. This project will investigate hydrological and ecological changes resulting from permafrost thaw in the border region, develop and mobilise knowledge of these changes, develop predictive modelling tools, and provide interactive training on these tools to our partners in industry, government and communities, including First Nations. In response to the need for improved understanding of and ability to predict permafrost thaw impacts, we propose the Consortium for Permafrost Ecosystems in Transition (CPET). A summary of CPET specific objectives is as follows: 1) Map the changing spatial distribution of permafrost, wetland and forest coverage over the past 60 years; 2) For different ground thaw and moisture conditions, conduct field studies to improve the understanding of the volume and timing of runoff; 3) Simulate the major water flux and storage processes controlling runoff; 4) Improve our ability to characterize permafrost impacts at larger scales through field investigation and subsequent adaptation of the a regional-scale permafrost model; 5) Estimate future quantities of runoff and surface water storage within Boreal and subarctic landscapes with discontinuous permafrost under possible scenarios of climate warming and human disturbance. Improved knowledge and predictive capacity of permafrost thaw patterns, rates, impacts and feedbacks will 1) improve water planning, management and security by reducing the uncertainty on the future availability of freshwater, and enable better mitigation strategies to offset negative impacts, and 2) reduce construction and maintenance costs arising from thaw-induced damage to infrastructure and property, and reduce environmental impact.