Natural Resources Uncertainty Management

自然资源具有相当大的不确定性。不确定性的最大来源之一是由于远离样品位置的岩石性质的空间变异性。拟议的研究计划旨在继续开发数学和计算方法，以量化和管理与自然资源不同方面相关的不确定性。不确定性围绕着自然资源划界和生产的所有方面。矿藏、石油储藏和温室气体封存的地质地点是可变的和不确定的。 增加这种不确定性的是（1）传统石油储量的减少，（2）北方阿尔伯塔巨大的非传统油砂矿床和远北天然气储量的开发，以及（c）对新的和更清洁的能源的兴趣。提议的主席任期延长主要是为了量化数据稀少造成的不确定性，以及管理这种不确定性的程序和准则。

Natural resources are associated with considerable uncertainty. One of the largest sources of uncertainty is due to the spatial variability in rock properties away from sample locations. The proposed research program aims to continue developing mathematical and computational methods to quantify and manage uncertainty related to different aspects of natural resources. Uncertainty surrounds all aspects of natural resources delineation and production. Mineral deposits, petroleum reservoirs, and geological sites for greenhouse gas sequestration are variable and uncertain. Adding to this uncertainty are (1) dwindling conventional petroleum reserves, (2) development of the huge unconventional oilsands deposits in northern Alberta and the natural gas reserves in the far north, and (c) interest in new and cleaner sources of energy. The proposed Chair renewal is primarily aimed at the quantification of uncertainty that results from sparse data and procedures and guidelines to manage this uncertainty.