Unlocking links between predicting explosive volcanism and forecasting its effects on climate

自从公元79年庞贝被摧毁以来，火山灾害以毁灭性的火山碎屑流的形式吸引了几代科学家和非科学家的注意和想象力。然而，与2010年春季相对较小的艾雅法拉火山喷发有关的长期火山灰云对全球经济造成的后果让世界完全措手不及，显示出我们对喷发动态的理解存在差距，以及在日益全球化的世界中评估风险的新挑战。小冰河时代在1300年至1850年期间导致了整个欧洲的饥荒和相关的大量人口下降，现在最好的解释是与广泛的火山爆发有关的新的气候效应的结果，特别是集中在环太平洋地区的火山活动，这使得与2010年事件相关的不安更加尖锐。通过12项任务，涉及火山喷发动力学的新方面的实验、理论和计算研究，以及补充的实地和遥感研究，这一提议将在两个主要主题问题上取得关键进展：*火山喷发是否调制或甚至驱动了百年到千年的气候变化，并可能产生戏剧性的社会后果，如“小冰河时代”期间发生的严重欧洲饥荒？*与喷发前岩浆流有关的地震震动是危险喷发的可靠前兆吗？这些动力是否表现在喷发羽流的行为和沉积中？每个主题问题的进展都面临着解决和理解与颗粒-流体混合物动力学相关的小尺度过程的挑战，以及认识到它们在各种地质和地球物理数据中的表达。我的实验室处于独一无二的位置，可以取得进展。除了最近建立的定量实地研究记录外，我的实验地质流体力学项目的持续成功推动了最先进的EOAS地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)的建设，该实验室于2012/13年度开放，并为在2015/2016年成功建立CFI John Evans Leadance Fund支持的地球系统地球物理混合中心(CGMES)奠定了基础。CGMES包括关键的基础设施，专门用于在所有感兴趣的尺度上解决颗粒流中的混合过程。这项提议利用了这些能力以及我在火山学、地球动力学、地幔-气候耦合、行星科学和地球系统科学方面的丰富经验。这项工作将培训5名博士生和2名硕士研究生，以识别和解决尖端科学问题，并使用各种创新的技术方法开展工作。此外，我将让10-15名二、三、四年级(即论文)的本科生参与到这项工作的各个方面。

Since the destruction of Pompeii in AD 79, volcanic hazards in the form of devastating pyroclastic flows have captured the attention and imaginations of scientists and non-scientists alike for generations. The global economic consequences of the long-lived ash cloud related to the relatively small Eyjafjallajökull eruption in the spring of 2010, however, caught the world off guard entirely and demonstrated gaps in our understanding of eruption dynamics, as well as new challenges for assessing risks in an increasingly globalized world. That the Little Ice Age, which led to famines and associated vast population declines across Europe between 1300 and 1850, is now best explained as a consequence of novel climate effects related to extensive explosive volcanism particularly concentrated around the Pacific rim makes unease related to the 2010 event more acute.******Through 12 tasks involving experimental, theoretical and computational studies of novel aspects of the dynamics of volcanic eruptions, as well as complementary field and remote sensing studies, this proposal will make critical progress on 2 major thematic questions: ******Do volcanic eruptions modulate or even drive centennial to millenial climate variability with potentially dramatic societal consequences such as the profound European famines that occurred during the “Little Ice Age”? ******Are seismic tremors related to pre-eruptive magma flow reliable precursors of dangerous eruptions, and are these dynamics expressed in the behavior of, and deposits from, eruption plumes?******Progress on each thematic question shares the challenge of resolving and understanding small-scale processes related to the dynamics of particle-fluid mixtures, as well as recognizing their expression in varied geological and geophysical data. My lab is uniquely positioned to make progress. In addition to an established recent record of quantitative field studies, the continuing success of my experimental geological fluid mechanics program motivated construction of the state-of-the-art EOAS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which opened in 2012/13, and formed the basis for establishing a successful CFI John Evans Leadership Fund-supported Centre for Geophysical Mixing in the Earth System (CGMES) in 2015/2016. CGMES includes critical infrastructure dedicated to resolving mixing processes in particle-laden flows at all scales of interest. This proposal leverages these capabilities along with my established breadth of experience in volcanology, geodynamics, mantle-climate coupling, planetary science and Earth systems science. This work will train 5 PhD students and 2 MSc students to identify and address cutting edge scientific problems and to carry out work using varied and innovative technical methodologies. In addition, I will involve 10-15 undergraduates at 2nd, 3rd and 4th year (i.e., theses) levels in all aspects of the work.**