Evaluating and predicting the resiliency of lakes

湖泊正在随着人类活动的变化而变化。评估和预测湖泊对这些变化的恢复能力对于制定缓解和管理战略至关重要。拟议的研究计划旨在开发诊断和预测工具，以评估湖泊在不断变化的气候中对人类影响的反应。拟议的研究计划将侧重于湖泊物理输送过程，包括内波、冰下环流和热层结的季节和年际演变。与研究伙伴合作，这将扩展到评估和预测水质和生态影响。湖泊生态，因此水质取决于从湍流到年际的时间尺度上的物理过程，以及从单个生物体到流域大小的空间尺度。根据当地气候的不同，热力层结的季节演变通常以长时间(几个月)的热力层结和短暂的完全混合期(几天到几周)为特征。在加拿大的气候中，所有这些过程都受到冰雪覆盖的影响。每个湖泊的生态都适应并依赖于这些季节性混合事件的时间和频率，以及冰雪覆盖的持续时间和质量。然而，气候变化的影响，有时再加上直接的人为干预(通过连续排放或快速倾倒来增加物质和能量)，可能会极大地改变混合、分层和冰雪覆盖时期的时间和持续时间，这可能对居民生态和水质产生严重影响。*拟议的研究将现场测量与数值水动力模型相结合，以评估和预测湖泊的弹性。在这方面，现场和数值方法是对现场数据的重要补充，这些数据提供了描述湖泊系统如何运作的“地面事实”，以及验证数值模型所需的基本数据，这些数据可用于1)量化质量传输，2)过程研究(隔离关键过程)，以及3)预测人类活动(意外或可控的)和/或气候变暖的未来影响。*拟议研究的最终结果将是更好地了解有冰和无冰湖泊和水库的循环和运输动力学，以及开发和应用这些湖泊和水库的水动力学数值模型。将推广目标湖泊的结果，以增强数值水动力、水质和生态建模能力。

Lakes are changing in response to human activity. Evaluating and predicting lake resiliency to these changes is crucial to developing mitigation and management strategies. The proposed research program aims to develop diagnostic and prognostic tools to assess a lake's response to human impacts within a changing climate. The proposed research program will focus on lacustrine physical transport processes including internal waves, under-ice circulation, and seasonal and inter-annual evolution of thermal stratification. This, in collaboration with research partners will be extended to assess and predict water quality and ecological impacts.******Lake ecology and hence water quality is dependent on physical processes at time scales ranging from turbulence to inter-annual, and spatial scales from individual organism to basin size. Depending on local climate, the seasonal evolution of thermal stratification is typically characterized by prolonged (months) thermal stratification separated by brief periods of complete mixing (days to weeks). In a Canadian climate all of these processes are mediated by snow and ice-cover. Each lake's ecology is adapted to and dependent on the timing and frequency of these seasonal mixing events, as well as duration and quality of snow and ice-cover. However, impacts of a changing climate, sometimes combined with direct human intervention (addition of material and energy through continuous discharge or rapid dumping), can drastically change the timing and duration of mixing, stratification, and snow/ice cover periods, which can have dire implications for resident ecology and water quality. ******The proposed research combines field measurements with numerical hydrodynamic modelling to evaluate and predict lake resiliency. In this regard, field and numerical methods provide an important complement to field data that provides "ground truth" in describing how a lake system functions, as well as essential data needed to validate numerical models, which can be used for 1) quantifying mass transport, 2) process studies (isolating critical processes), and 3) predicting the future impact of human activities (accidental or managed) and/or climate warming. ******The end result of the proposed research will be an improved understanding of the circulation and transport dynamics of ice-covered and ice-free lakes and reservoirs, as well as development and application of numerical hydrodynamic models of these lakes and reservoirs. Results from targeted lakes will be generalized to enhance numerical hydrodynamic, water quality and ecological modelling capabilities.