Effect of climate-driven loading events on slope stability

*在上个世纪，加拿大的山体滑坡估计造成了超过95亿加元的直接和间接损失，并导致600多人死亡。随着加拿大继续经历降雨量和气温的增加，社会经济成本将继续上升，因为以前稳定的斜坡和堤坝面临越来越大的破坏风险。因此，努力了解和减轻气候变化对斜坡稳定性的影响至关重要。具体地说，加拿大需要针对不断变化的气候处理斜坡稳定性的工程“最佳做法”，以减少与气候驱动的滑坡相关的风险。这项研究计划的总体目标是了解气候变化将如何在原本稳定的斜坡上引发滑坡，并利用这些知识来改进滑坡风险评估技术。*在这项研究计划中，两个主题将调查气候变化如何影响斜坡稳定性这一具有挑战性的问题。第一个主题将集中于了解气候变化如何引发山体滑坡，重点是退化的永久冻土和土壤厚度的作用。为了实现这一目标，将进行20个土工离心机滑坡试验，以及在西北地区进行实地调查。通过这些物理模型实验和现场调查获得的科学发现将对加拿大城市和寒冷地区气候驱动的滑坡缓解和斜坡加固技术的发展产生革命性的影响，并将提供验证所开发的数值预测和传播模型所需的关键物理数据。*第二个研究主题将集中在风险评估技术上，首先是开发一种传感器，测量现场的大吸力。这将为受气候变化影响的高风险斜坡提供长期的斜坡稳定性监测，并为从业人员提供具有成本效益的监测设备，增加山泥倾泻前的警告时间。此外，还将改进滑坡易感性和危险测绘技术，目标是扩大测绘技术，以包括城市和北部地区气候变化的影响和相关风险。*6名研究生和5名本科生将接受这一研究计划的培训，并将获得技术、科学、研究和软技能方面的专业知识。学生所学到的知识可广泛应用于各种应用，包括岩土基础设施设计、地质灾害调查和滑坡风险评估。从长远来看，这项研究将使加拿大受益，因为它将减少与山体滑坡相关的社会经济成本和风险，并将改善受气候变化影响的天然和工程斜坡的安全和稳定性。

***Over the last century, landslides in Canada are estimated to have cost over $9.5 billion CAD in both direct and in-direct costs, and have resulted in over 600 fatalities. As Canada continues to experience increased precipitation and temperatures, the socio-economic cost will continue to rise as slopes and embankments which were previously stable face increasing risk of failure.  Efforts to understand and mitigate the impact of climate change on slope stability is critical. Specifically, Canadian engineering `best practices' for slope stability need to be addressed for a changing climate in order reduce the risks associated with climate-driven landslides. The overall goal of this research program is to understand how climate change will trigger landslides in otherwise stable slopes, and to use that knowledge to improve landslide risk assessment techniques.***In this research program, two themes will investigate this challenging problem of how climate change impacts slope stability. The first theme will focus on understanding how climate change triggers landslides, concentrating on degrading permafrost and the role of soil thickness. To accomplish this, twenty geotechnical centrifuge landslide experiments will be conducted, as well as field investigations in the Northwest Territories. The scientific findings, acquired through these physical model experiments and site-investigations will have a transformative effect on the development of climate-driven landslide mitigation and slope stabilization techniques in urban and cold regions in Canada, and will provide the critical physical data needed to verify developed numerical prediction and propagation models.***The second research theme will focus on risk assessment techniques, first with the development of a sensor that measures large suction stresses in the field. This will enable long-term slope stability monitoring for high-risk slopes exposed to climate changes, and provide practitioners with a cost-effective monitoring device that increases the warning time prior to a landslide. In addition, improvement to landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping techniques will be developed, targeted at expanding mapping techniques to include the impact and associated risks of climate change in urban and northern regions.***Six graduate and five undergraduate students will be trained in this research program and will gain expertise in technical, scientific, research and soft skills. The developed knowledge gained by students can be applied in a wide variety of applications, including geotechnical infrastructure design, geohazard investigations, and landslide risk assessment. In the long term, the research will benefit Canada by reducing the socio-economic costs and risks associated with landslides, and will improve the safety and stability of our natural and engineered slopes that are impacted by climate change.**