Urban heat island causation and adaptation: Model development and application to Canadian cities

预计全球城市将因气候变化和城市发展而变暖，影响健康和可持续性成果。我的研究计划的长期目标包括确定当地设计相关的城市热的原因和随之而来的城市适应现有和未来气候的改善。******城市发展从根本上改变了景观，产生了城市热岛（UHIs）。然而，用主要城市气候学家的话来说，我们目前对城市热岛的因果关系的理解仍然包括“更多的猜测而不是既定事实”。文献中充满了对UHI强度的研究；然而，很少有研究令人满意地解决了全民健康保险的因果机制，主要是因为相关模型没有充分代表关键的物理过程。******我是世界上少数几个开发先进城市微气象模型的研究人员之一。我和同事们开发了一个广泛使用的街道尺度温度模型，一个复杂的城市街道湍流热交换模型，以及第一个详细的街道树木模型表示（通常用作热适应策略）。适当地结合起来，这些进展将产生能够准确解决所有热岛原因和适应机制的数值模式。******本提案的目标包括：1)开发和评估一个全面的、评估良好的街道尺度的城市气候模型；2)完成不同季节和气候下热岛热岛成因机制的评估；3)对影响街道空气温度的几个未经检验的过程进行了新颖的评估；4)两城市和季节植树对街道温度和建筑能耗影响的耦合模型评价；5)考虑冷季影响的多伦多当前和未来气候的最佳热适应策略评价。******创新数值模型的开发和应用将在若干规模上与国际同事合作进行。我们的工作将捕获任何其他城市建模平台无法解决的潜在重要气象过程。我们的树木模型将被插入到最先进的天气研究与预报（WRF）气象模型中，并通过全球气候模型预测的动态降尺度来评估多伦多街道树木和其他城市热适应策略的实施情况，以适应当代和未来的气候。七名研究生和五名本科生将在一个令人兴奋的环境中接受培训。研究结果将为加拿大城市对气候变暖的最佳适应提供信息。

The world's cities are projected to warm from climate change and urban development, impacting health and sustainability outcomes. The long-term objectives of my research program include identification of local design-related causes of urban heat and consequent amelioration of urban adaptation to existing and future climates.******Urban development radically alters the landscape, generating urban heat islands (UHIs). Yet, in the words of leading urban climatologists, our current understanding of UHI causation still includes “more speculation than established fact.” The literature is replete with studies of UHI intensity; however, few studies satisfactorily address UHI causal mechanisms, principally because relevant models have not adequately represented key physical processes.******I am one of few researchers worldwide developing advanced urban micrometeorological models. Colleagues and I developed a widely-used model of street-scale temperatures, a sophisticated model of turbulent heat exchange in city streets, and the first detailed model representation of street trees (often used as a heat adaptation strategy). Appropriately combined, these advances will generate numerical models capable of accurately resolving all UHI causation and adaptation mechanisms.******The objectives of this proposal include: 1) development and evaluation of a comprehensive, well-evaluated street-scale urban climate model; 2) complete assessment of UHI causation mechanisms for diverse seasons and climates; 3) novel appraisal of several unexamined processes that affect street-level air temperature; 4) coupled model assessment of impacts of tree planting on street-level temperature and building energy consumption in two cities and seasons; 5) evaluation of optimal heat adaptation strategies for present and future climates in Toronto with consideration of their cold season impacts.******Innovative numerical model development and application will be undertaken at several scales, in collaboration with colleagues internationally. Our work will capture potentially important meteorological processes not resolved by any other urban modeling platform. Our tree model will be inserted into the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, and implementation of street trees and other urban heat adaptation strategies in Toronto will be assessed for contemporary and future climates via dynamical downscaling of global climate model projections. Seven graduate students and five undergraduate students will be trained in a stimulating environment. Findings will inform optimal adaptation of Canadian cities to a warming climate.