Understanding and Projecting Change in the Marine Environment on Intraseasonal and Climate Time Scales

这项研究的目标是更好地了解大气和海洋在几天到一个季节的时间尺度上是如何相互作用的，并预测海洋在未来一百年内可能发生的变化。这一目标将通过协同应用新的统计方法和基于海洋动态的模型来实现。研究将主要集中在物理变量，但海洋变化对几种海洋物种的空间分布和迁移的影响将被检查。这项研究分为两个主题。第一个主题侧重于气候变化对海洋的影响。它包括沿海洪水的预测，也包括海洋温度、盐度和环流在当地尺度上的预测（缩小尺度）及其对海洋动物分布和运动的影响。本主题的一个重要目标是量化物理变化及其影响预估中的不确定性。第二个主题侧重于在天到一个季节的时间尺度上大气-海洋系统的全球变率模态。它将主要基于观测，但将使用动力学模型来解释结果。本研究具有一定的现实意义和科学意义。它将导致对下个世纪沿海洪水概率的更现实的预测，明确考虑到未来全球海平面和风暴的不确定性。研究结果将对沿海工程师、沿海管理人员和政策制定者具有实际意义。对海洋状况预估的降尺度将使人们更好地了解全球变化的局部表现。大气-海洋变量的全球尺度型态之间的经验联系，以及它们在物理机制方面的解释，将有助于扩大分季节预报系统的有用范围。

The goal of the research is to better understand how the atmosphere and ocean interact on time scales of days to a season, and project how the ocean may change over the next hundred years. This goal will be reached by the synergistic application of new statistical methods and dynamically-based models of the ocean. The research will focus primarily on physical variables but the impact of ocean changes on the spatial distribution and migration of several marine species will be examined.The research is organized under two themes. The first theme focuses on the marine impacts of climate change. It includes the projection of coastal flooding, and also the projection of ocean temperature, salinity and circulation to local scales (downscaling) and their influence on the distribution and movement of marine animals. An important goal of this theme is to quantify uncertainty in the projections of physical change and their impacts. The second theme focuses on global modes of variability of the atmosphere-ocean system on time scales of days to a season. It will be based primarily on observations but will use dynamical models to interpret the results.The proposed research is of both practical and scientific significance. It will lead to more realistic projections of the probability of coastal flooding over the next century that explicitly take into account the uncertainty in future global sea level and storminess. The results will be of practical interest to coastal engineers, coastal managers and policy makers. The downscaling of projections of ocean conditions will give a better understanding of the local expression of global change. The empirical associations between global scale patterns of atmosphere-ocean variables, and their interpretation in terms of physical mechanisms, will be useful in extending the useful range of subseasonal forecast systems.