Theoretical social evolution: predictions for fluctuating environments

影响行为人及其邻居的适合度的行为被称为“社会行为”。我的长期目标是通过数学建模和计算机模拟的结合来理解生态如何影响社会行为的进化。在短期内，我将重点关注3类社会行为的演变，其首要目标是预测不可预测的环境条件的影响，这些环境条件在时间和空间上波动。******我要研究的第一类社会行为涉及到与合作繁殖系统有关的行为。在这些系统中，一些个体放弃繁殖的机会来帮助抚养其他个体的后代。重点项目将探索合作育种如何像保险单一样帮助群体度过困难时期。这些项目将有助于我们理解社会复杂性是如何演变的，尤其是在环境变得更加不稳定的情况下。******我要研究的第二类行为涉及到与后代到父母的信号系统有关的行为。特别是，我想知道为什么我们在这些系统中看到如此巨大的变化，以及不可预测的环境条件在形成它们方面所起的作用。我发现的答案将向我们指出，父母和子女之间许多奇怪的沟通方式背后的适应性意义。******我要研究的第三个类别与性别分配有关，即父母在儿子和女儿之间分配资源。在这里，我将把来自著名的理想理论情景模型的预测与来自更现实的模拟的预测相匹配，我的目标是使前者在社会环境不断变化的情况下更有用。我还建议，当社会群体在个体素质的可遗传方面发生变化时，预测性别分配的模式，并研究性别分配策略如何缓冲灭绝。这最后两个项目预计将影响保护濒危脊椎动物物种的能力。******总之，这三种类型的行为捕捉到了个体生命中的关键时刻，开始于个体与其父母之间的互动，结束于个体与其后代之间的关系。因此，我的项目将提供一整套关于面对不确定性时行为如何演变的预测，并使我们能够更有效地管理生物多样性。******我的出版记录，以及在过去6年中获得的奖项和荣誉，表明我有能力成功地开展拟议的工作。重要的是，拟议的工作与我培养高素质人才的计划密切相关。不同层次的学员（从本科生到博士后）将深入参与我的研究的各个方面。正如我过去的贡献所证明的那样，我的学员将获得所需的技能，他们将在一个包容、多样化和具有挑战性的环境中学习。**

Behaviors that affect the fitness of both the actor and its neighbors are called 'social behaviors.' My long-term objective is to understand how ecology influences the evolution of social behavior using a mix of mathematical modeling and computer simulation. In the short-term I will focus on the evolution of 3 categories of social behavior, with the over-arching goal of predicting the impact of unpredictable environmental conditions that fluctuate in time and space.******The first category of social behavior I will study involves ones related to cooperative-breeding systems. In these systems some individuals forgo breeding opportunities to help raise offspring produced by others. Key projects will explore how cooperative breeding acts like an insurance policy to see groups through difficult times. These projects will contribute to our understanding of how social complexity evolves, especially as the environment becomes more erratic. ******The second category of behavior I will study involves ones related to offspring-to-parent signalling systems. In particular, I want to know why we see such tremendous variation in these systems, and about the role unpredictable environmental conditions play in shaping them. The answers I uncover will point us to the adaptive significance that underlies the many strange ways in which parents and offspring communicate.******The third category I will study relates to sex allocation, i.e. the division of a parent's resources between its sons and daughters. Here, I will match predictions from well-known models of ideal theoretical scenarios with those from more realistic simulations, my goal being to make the former more useful in situations where social environments are in flux. I also propose to predict patterns of sex allocation when social groups vary with respect to heritable aspects of individual quality, and to investigate how sex allocation strategies might buffer against extinction. These final two projects are expected to impact abilities to conserve threatened vertebrate species. ******Together, the 3 categories of behavior capture critical times in an individual's life, beginning with interactions between the individual and its parent, and ending with the relationship between the individual and its own offspring. My program will, therefore, provide a comprehensive set of predictions about how behavior evolves in the face of uncertainty, and allow us to manage biodiversity more effectively. ******My track record of publication, as well as awards and honors received in the past 6 years, shows that I am well-positioned to carry out the proposed work successfully. Importantly, the proposed work is tightly linked to my plans for training highly-qualified personnel. Trainees at a various levels (from undergrad to postdoc) will be heavily involved in all aspects of my research. As evidenced by my past contributions, my trainees will acquire in-demand skills, and they will do so in an inclusive, diverse, and challenging setting. **