Environmentally informed virtual water trade: a framework to assess water-food-energy nexus at the regional scale

许多水安全挑战主要发生在区域范围内，但超越了河流流域和当地社区的边界。虚拟水贸易(VWT)是一种很有前景的区域水管理方法，它促进了水密集型商品从缺水地区向缺水地区的流动。然而，大多数可变水量研究1)是在全球一级进行的，仅涉及国际粮食贸易，其中没有考虑次国家一级的水-食品-能源(WFE)动态研究；2)在评估供水和消费时，没有系统地研究区分绿色和蓝色、化石和可再生水的水量的时空动态；以及3)没有在同一分析框架中评估可变水量的环境影响，包括水质退化。所有这些理论上的差距都导致了VWT在区域水管理中的可行性存在很大的不确定性。*以加拿大草原地区为例，提出在次国家层面研究虚拟水问题。我计划通过考虑影响WFE和贸易关系的自然物理过程和人为因素来研究“环境知情VWT(EI-VWT)”。*我的DG研究计划的短期(5年)目标是调整生态水(地学)逻辑模型，评估水、食物和贸易关系的动态；并开发一个框架，以检查EI-VWT作为国家一级管理选项的可行性。我的具体目标是：*(1)在区域范围内区分蓝色、绿色、化石和可再生资源的供水、实物作物产量和作物用水量。将测试多模型比较以及将关键过程集成/改进为区域模型，包括冰川、冻土、地下水相互作用以及气候变化影响。*(2)区域范围内的水质，包括营养物质和泥沙负荷和运输。*(3)用于研究EI-VWT的水、食品和贸易动力学。*我的HQP驱动的研究计划的长期目标(5-15年)是通过整合1)与能源生产和贸易相关的过程及其累积影响来推进框架；2)对形成区域水资源利用和贸易政策具有重要意义的社会经济因素和当地条件；以及3)高频和低频气候振荡下的极端事件。*拟议的研究将解决在研究水资源利用和水资源管理战略时对水量和水质过程以及与水资源贸易动态的综合理解方面的知识差距。这项研究是VWT文献中第一个在不同自然和经济条件的出口导向型地区(例如加拿大西部)考察的综合性、整体性和方法方面独特的研究之一。**

Many water security challenges occur predominantly at regional scale, yet beyond the borders of river basins and local communities. The virtual water trade (VWT) is a promising regional water management approach that promotes the flow of water-intensive commodities from water-abundant to water-scarce regions. However, the majority of VWT studies 1) have been conducted at the global level, only concerning the international food trade, where studies of water-food-energy (WFE) dynamics at the sub-country level are not considered; 2) have not systematically studied spatiotemporal dynamics of water quantity differentiating green from blue, and fossil from renewable water in the assessment of both water supply and consumption; and 3) have not assessed the environmental impacts of VWT including water quality degradation in the same analytical framework. All of these theoretical gaps have contributed to a large uncertainty in the feasibility of the VWT in regional water management. ******I propose to study the virtual water issues at the sub-country level, by taking Canadian Prairie Region as a case study. I plan to examine an "environmentally informed VWT (EI-VWT)" by considering natural physical processes and anthropogenic factors affecting the WFE and trade relationships. ***The short-term (5 yrs) goal of my DG research program is to adapt ecohydro(geo)logical models, to assess dynamics of water, food, and trade relationships; and to develop a framework to examine the feasibility of EI-VWT as a management option at the sub-country level. My specific objectives are the spatial explicit and temporal assessments of: ******(1) Water supply, physical crop yield, and crop water consumption discriminating blue, green, fossil and renewable resources at a regional scale. Multi-model comparison and integration/improvement of the key processes into regional models including glacier, frozen soil, groundwater interactions, as well as climate change impacts will be tested.***(2) Water quality, including nutrient and sediment load and transport, at the regional scale.***(3) Water, food, and trade dynamics for the examination of EI-VWT.******The long-term (5-15 yrs) goal of my HQP driven research program is to advance the framework by integration of 1) processes related to energy production and trade, and their cumulative impacts; 2) socioeconomic factors and local conditions that are important in shaping regional WFE, and trade policies; and 3) extreme events under both high frequency and lower frequency climatic oscillations.***The proposed research will address knowledge gaps that of an integrated understanding of water quantity and quality processes and relation with dynamics of WFE trade in the examination of VWT strategy for regional water management. This study is unique one of the first in VWT literature in terms of comprehensiveness, integration, and approaches examined in an export-oriented region of diverse natural and economic conditions (e.g. Western Canada).**